.80″ rain predicted for the metro area by Monday morning (00z NAM model).

Saturday: coolest day of the holiday, temperatures stuck in the 50s.

70F. possible on Memorial Day, 80s return by the middle of next week.
 

“…This is an uphill battle, but I’m sure that the market will ultimately find a way to meet consumer demand. Many industries over the years — from the stagecoach builders and saddle makers to those who made the eight-track tape and the Sony Walkman — didn’t much like the change forced on them by the tide of history. Sooner or later, companies standing in the way today will face a similar choice: Meet consumers’ demands or become obsolete.” – Senator John McCain, arguing for a Television Consumer Freedom Act, in the Los Angeles Times below. Image credit: techcrunch.com.

Looks Like A Holiday. I’ll be surprised if we get out of the 50s Saturday, rain early in the day tapering to drizzle and sprinkles – probably the worst day of the holiday weekend, although skies may brighten with drier conditions up north. Sunday brings 60s (and more showers and T-storms) with a shot at 70 Memorial Day. Cue the applause track. Of course we see 80s by the middle of next week. Lousy timing.

Atmospheric Tug-of-War. Warm air riding up and over a stubborn dome of cooler, drier air over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will spark periods of showers and T-storms over the weekend, the best chance of rain tonight and early Saturday; another round of showers and T-storms may push in on Sunday. Tomorrow looks like the foulest day; I don’t expect an all-day rain on Sunday or Monday, but rather hit or miss showers and T-showers. I’m just the messenger.

Trending Warmer, But Still A Very Wet Pattern. GFS numbers show rain nearly every day during the first week of June; very warm air just south of Minnesota but a stubborn flow of Canadian air keeping a nearly stationary frontal boundary very close to Minnesota. Translation: showers and T-storms will be numerous the next 2 weeks; a few may be severe.

Moore Tornado Track Superimposed Over MSP Metro. A track from Edina to Maplewood? That’s what residents of Oklahoma’s southern suburbs, centered on Moore, enduring Monday afternoon, with patches of EF4 to EF5 damage (highlighted in red). Thanks to WeatherNation TV meteorologist D.J. Kayser for putting this story into local perspective. This is the kind of worst-case scenario that keeps me up at night. God-willing this will never happen, but we need to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. An EF-4 can’t hit the metro? Tell that to residents of Fridley.

Moore, Oklahoma: Before And After The Tornado. This ESRI URL shows the implications of an EF-5 tornado, with devasting detail that I haven’t seen anywhere else.

Weather Service Systems Crumbling As Severe Weather Escalates. Failing weather satellites, NWS web sites going down in the south, the Chicago office of the NWS unable to issue severe storm warnings – what is going on? Here’s an excerpt from The Washington Post’s meteorologist Jason Samenow at The Capital Weather Gang: ”As painfully obvious from the recent events in Oklahoma, tornado season is in full gear. Meanwhile, hurricane season is a week away.  Yet budget woes and multiple system failures at the National Weather Service in the past week, not to mention staffing shortages, are raising concerns that its ability to warn the public of hazardous weather could crack at any time. In the past 5 days alone, a telecommunications outage near Chicago made it difficult for NWS forecasters to issue warnings, a major weather satellite failed, the website for the entire NWS Southern Region went down, and a NWS official in tornado alley declined to launch a weather balloon citing budget concerns. These problems are symptomatic of insufficient funding and dated infrastructure, advocates for more generous NWS budgets say. What follows is an overview of the problems NWS has encountered, just since Sunday…”

The timing of these technical malfunctions and NOAA budget challenges and proposed furloughs is unfortunate…

NOAA Predicts Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We’re in an ENSO-neutral period right now, no La Nina cooling or El Nino warming. El Nino also tends to turn on stronger winds in the tropics, which can deter tropical storm formation. It may be another very active season – here are a few excerpts from NOAA: “For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)….

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

• A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

• Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

• El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation…”

Moore Tornado Recovery Efforts Signal Long Road Ahead. Here’s an excerpt from a story at Huffington Post: ”…Early estimates indicate the tornado caused more than $2 billion of damage in Moore. Whole subdivisions in the fast-growing community of 56,000 people were destroyed. Authorities estimated that as many as 13,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and 33,000 people were affected – an especially traumatic toll for a city that had already suffered three other tornados since 1998. Two elementary schools were hit – one was leveled – by Monday’s tornado. Candelaria was one of seven children who perished at the Plaza Towers Elementary School, a one story building with barely a wall left standing. Altogether, 10 children were killed in the storm, including two infants…”

Photo credit above: “The sun rises in the distance as a morning thunderstorm moves over homes damaged from a tornado in Moore, Okla., May 23, 2013. With authorities saying they have likely recovered all the bodies to be found beneath the rubble left by the Category 5 tornado Monday, the focus turned to the long and expensive path of recovering from one of the most catastrophic storms in Oklahoma’s history.” (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)

What Happens When A Tornado Hits? Here’s an excerpt of an interview I gave to Chris Hayes on MSNBC Monday evening, describing the dynamics of an EF4/EF5 tornado.

A Tornado Isn’t An Object, But Rather A Process. Tuesday night I had a chance ot explain how tornadoes form, the physics able to translate spin around a horizontal axis into a vertical axis (with the help of some great special effects). Here’s the video clip from “All In With Chris Hayes” on MSNBC. My segment is about 8:00 in.

When Tornadoes Are A Way Of Life. Here’s an excerpt of a radio interview I gave to Jennifer Ludden at NPR’s Talk of the Nation on Tuesday: ”…I think one of the issues that we have in this country is a certain degree of tornado fatigue. Seventy percent of all tornado warnings, Jennifer, are false alarms, you know? Nobody wants to get caught with their Doppler down. So any time we see rotation in a thunderstorm, the temptation is to issue the warning. But in the process, we’re all kind of bombarded with warnings. You start to tune out. And on a day like yesterday, you need to break through the clutter and the apathy and the cry-wolf syndrome and shape people viscerally and emotionally. And the words that you chose – I think any sociologist will tell you the words you choose are critical in conveying that level of risk. At one point, Mike Morgan actually said: If you don’t have an underground shelter, this tornado is unsurvivable. Get into your vehicle, try to drive away – which you never, ever hear. And yet, that was the magnitude of the tornado threat yesterday. The problem is with tornados, we don’t know right away if it’s an EF1 or an EF4...”

Tornadoes And Urban Sprawl: How Long Until A Major City Is Hit? Oklahomans know exactly what to do when a major tornado is approaching, living at Ground Zero of Tornado Alley. But what happens when a similar (extreme) tornado hits a major city or densely populated suburb? We’re not even close to being ready for that scale of weather disaster. Here’s a link to a video from WeatherNation TV: “Meteorologists Paul Douglas and Susie Martin look at the severe threat for the coming days, as well as the statistics and the role urban sprawl has when it comes to the risk of a strong tornado hitting a major city.“

Lessons From Moore Tornado Disaster. In today’s edition of Climate Matters I take a look at some of the implications of the Moore EF-5 tornado, including situational awareness, multiple information safety nets, and why you need to REALLY pay attention the next time a “Tornado Emergency” is issued for your area.

The Rise Of DIY Tornado Shelters. Do you really need to spend thousands of dollars to retrofit a closet into a steel and concrete-reinforced “safe room”, able to withstand even an extreme tornado? There may be some things you can on your own. Here’s an excerpt of a timely story from AccuWeather.com: “…Homes without storm cellars or basements offer little protection from a tornado. While windowless rooms and closets offer more safety than other parts of the house, people are still left vulnerable to tragedy when storms strong enough to level entire structures come through. Storm shelters are built to withstand winds that standard household rooms are not equipped to handle. There have been cases of safe rooms remaining completely intact, protecting the people inside, as the entire building around it crumbles to the ground in a tornado. As people try to prepare for the worst, companies that produce do-it-yourself storm and tornado shelters are reporting a sharp increase in sales…”

Photo credit above: “Robert Hanna, civil engineer, and Jeff Ice, quality assurance inspector, both from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, check out a tornado shelter.” Photo courtesy of US Army Corps of Engineers

NOAA Satellite Malfunctions; May Affect Forecasts. This is not a good development. Meteorologist Andrew Freedman at Climate Central has the story; here’s an excerpt: “As the weather system that spawned the deadly Moore tornado moves eastward, the main weather satellite used for observing and forecasting conditions across eastern North America and the Atlantic Ocean has gone offline. It’s the second malfunction since September 2012, when a technical glitch was fixed by engineers working from the ground. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which operates the nation’s fleet of weather satellites, the satellite, known as GOES-13, initially malfunctioned at 11:40 p.m. eastern time on Tuesday. An initial recovery procedure was unsuccessful at restoring it to operation…”

Graphic credit above: “NOAA rending of a GOES satellite.” Credit: NOAA.

GOES-14 Starts Service As GOES-East. NOAA is using a spare satellite to try to make up for the GOES-13 outage; here’s an update from The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog: “At 1000 UTC (Thursday), GOES-14 imagery started flowing to AWIPS as the GOES-East satellite. Work continues on evaluating the status of GOES-13. GOES-14 remains at 105.5 West, and GVAR data are being broadcast directly from GOES-14. Updates on GOES-13 — and all satellites — can be found here.”

John McCain: Cable TV, The Right Way. The Television Consumer Freedom Act? Here is a clip of an Op-Ed from Senator John McCain at The Los Angeles Times that caught my eye: ”…The numbers are striking. According to the Federal Communications Commission, the price for basic cable has grown by an average of 6.1% a year over the last 16 years — three times the rate of inflation and far outpacing the average American’s paycheck. Cable bills are projected to continue rising to an average of $200 a month by 2020. The 82% of American households that subscribe to cable or satellite television are stuck paying escalating prices for “bundled” packages of more than 100 channels, despite the fact that the average viewer tunes in to only about 18 of them. Reinforcing this fundamental unfairness is a federal regulatory and legal framework that tilts in favor of cable companies and television programmers at the expense of consumers…” (photo credit: readwrite.com).

From Here You Can See Everything. Enjoy binge TV viewing? Hooked on Netflix? So am I. Maybe that’s not such a good thing, long term, as argued in this thought-provoking piece at themorningnews.org; here’s an excerpt: ”…I always binge on media when I’m in America. But this time it feels different. Media feels encroaching, circling, kind of predatory. It feels like it’s bingeing back. The basic currency of consumer media companies—Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, NBC, Fox News, Facebook, Pinterest, etc.—is hours of attention, our attention. They want our eyeballs focused on their content as often as possible and for as many hours as possible, mostly to sell bits of those hours to advertisers or to pitch our enjoyment to investors. And they’re getting better at it, this catch-the-eyeball game. Consider Netflix. These days, when one episode of The West Wing ends, with its irresistible moralistic tingle, I don’t even have to click a button to watch the next one. The freshly rolling credits migrate to the top-left corner of the browser tab, and below to the right a box with a new episode appears, queued up and just itching to be watched. Fifteen seconds later the new episode starts playing, before the credits on the current episode even finish. They rolled out this handy feature—they call it Post-Play—last August. Now all I have to do is nothing and moralistic tingle keeps coming….” (photo credit: wired.com).

The Suicide Epidemic. I’ve lost too many friends and family members to suicide. As a society we don’t stigmatize people with diabetes, and yet another chemical imbalance, depression, is often brushed under the carpet. No, we can’t possibly admit to that, as if it’s a character flaw or genetic defect. But it’s not. Depression is treatable, with medication and therapy everyone can be helped. We have to keep pounding home that message, to our friends, colleagues and family members, and if you suspect someone is in a dark place, don’t ignore it – do something about it. Help them find the help they need. Read this article at The Daily Beast and then do something positive, like supporting SAVE (Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education), based in Bloomington with an international outreach. Their director (and a good friend of mine) Dr. Dan Reidenberg, has testified before Congress. SAVE has an amazing staff and volunteers working 24/7 to avoid senseless, horrific tragedies. Consider attending their annual Fashion Show to raise more funds to help more people in need – next Thursday, May 30, in Minneapolis. Details are here. I feel strongly about SAVE and it’s mission – I hope to see you there.

Climate Stories…

Floating Research Station In Need Of Evacuation. A friend forwarded me this article late last night – a Russian research facility near the North Pole being evacuated due to unstable ice. In May? More evidence of profound changes at the top of the world. Here’s an excerpt from The Barents Observer: “The scientific research station was placed on the ice floe in October 2012 and was planned to stay there until September. Now the floe has already started to break apart and the crew has to be evacuated as soon as possible. Russia’s Minister of Nature Resources and Ecology Sergey Donskoy has ordered that a plan for evacuation should be ready within three days, the Ministry’s web site reads. “A collapse of the station’s ice floe poses a threat to its continued work, the lives of the crew, the environment close to the Canadian Economic Zone and to equipment and supplies”, a note from the minister reads…”

Photo credit above: “Some 16 scientists have spent the winter on the floating research station North Pole-40.” (Photo: AARI)

The Odds Of Disaster: An Economist’s Warning On Global Warming. Here’s an excerpt of a Paul Solman interview with economist Martin Weitzman at The PBS NewsHour: ”…Once it is in the atmosphere, CO2 remains there for a very long time. Even if CO2 emissions were cut to zero at some point in the future (a very drastic assumption), about 70 percent of CO2 concentrations over the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm would remain in the atmosphere for the following one hundred years, while about 40 percent would remain in the atmosphere for the following one thousand years. This, along with the possibility of bad outcomes, is the argument for keeping CO2 concentrations from reaching very high levels. Most people do not realize how difficult it is to stabilize CO2 concentrations. It is not nearly enough to stabilize CO2 emissions, which would cause CO2 concentrations to keep on increasing at the same rate as before. (This is because changes in concentrations are proportional to emissions.) The problem is that if you want to stabilize CO2 concentrations, you have to make drastic cuts in CO2 emissions. This is no easy feat. Yet, unless it is done, we are liable to reach very high levels of CO2 concentrations. Global warming skeptics would dispute or minimize the link between CO2 concentrations and temperature increases. Here is yet another uncertainty — are they or the mainstream climate scientists more right than wrong? But can we afford the luxury of assuming that a small minority of climate skeptics are more correct than the vast majority of mainstream climate scientists? What is the probability of that?…”

Photo credit above: “No one can say with any assurance what the dollar value of damages would be from the highly uncertain climate changes that might accompany a planet earth that is steadily warming.: PBS NewsHour.

Has Global Warming Stalled? Noted climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has some answers in a post at The Royal Meteorological Society; here’s an excerpt: ”Has global warming stalled? This question is increasingly being asked because of impressions about local weather being cool and wet, or because of impressions that the global mean temperature is not increasing at its earlier rate or the long-term rate expected from climate model projections. The answer depends a lot on what one means by “global warming”.  For some it is equated to the “global mean temperature”.  That quantity keeps going up but also has ups and downs from year to year.  More on that shortly. Why should it go up?  Well, because the planet is warming from human activities. With increasing carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there is an imbalance in energy flows in and out of the top-of-atmosphere: the greenhouse gases increasingly trap more radiation and hence create warming.   “Warming” really means heating, and so it can be manifested in many ways.  Rising surface temperatures are just one manifestation.  Melting Arctic sea ice is another.  So is melting of glaciers and other land ice that contribute to rising sea levels. Increasing the water cycle and invigorating storms is yet another.  However, most (over 90%) of the energy imbalance goes into the ocean, and several analyses have now shown this…”

* Trenberth’s article at The Conversation, with additional graphics and imagery, is here.

Hot In My Backyard. This compilation of radio reports is worth a listen; here’s an overview of the series from This American Life: “After years of being stuck, the national conversation on climate change finally started to shift — just a little — last year, the hottest year on record in the U.S., with Hurricane Sandy flooding the New York subway, drought devastating Midwest farms, and California and Colorado on fire. Lots of people were wondering if global warming had finally arrived, here at home. This week, stories about this new reality….”

Heat-Related Deaths May Increase With Climate Change. Here’s an excerpt of a story from LiveScience and Fox News: “Heat-related deaths in New York City’s borough of Manhattan may rise about 20 percent over the next decade, according to a new study. Researchers at Columbia University in New York analyzed the relationship between daily temperatures and temperature-related deaths across all seasons between 1982 and 1999 in Manhattan, which comprises the most densely populated county in the United States. The findings were published online May 19 in the journal Nature Climate Change…”

Tornadoes And Global Warming: Is There A Connection? Here’s a good summary of the uncertainty involved in connecting the dots with climate change and tornadoes from National Geographic: “…Linking any particular weather event to climate change is always tricky, because weather is inherently random. But weather patterns can speak to a warming planet. Scientists can detect that extreme rain events, for instance, are already happening more often than they used to, and that a warmer atmosphere with more water vapor in it is making such events more likely. Tornadoes are different. Global warming may well end up making them more frequent or intense, as our intuition would tell us. But it might also actually suppress them—the science just isn’t clear yet. Neither is the historical record…”

Photo credit above: “Scientists can’t say yet whether global warming will increase tornadoes.” Photograph by Carsten Peter, National Geographic

Making Sense Of The Moore Tornado In A Climate Context. Climate Central meteorologist Andrew Freedman does a good job connecting the dots; here’s an excerpt: ”…Tornado data does not reveal any clear trends in tornado occurrence or deaths that would suggest a clear tie to global warming, at least not yet. A recent paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that the occurrence of EF-1 and stronger tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale has shown no trend since 1954, which was the first year of near real-time data collection. Instead, an increase in tornado counts of EF-0 or stronger tornadoes has been attributed to an uptick in observations of very weak tornadoes. The Enhanced Fujita Scale measures tornado strength based on the extent and type of damage that they cause (no surface weather station has ever survived a direct tornado strike to take wind measurements from inside a twister)…”

Graphic credit above: “Probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a location as averaged from 1982-2011. This shows the highest odds of severe weather on Monday were in Oklahoma.” Credit: Storm Prediction Center.

CBO: Carbon Tax An Option To Avoid “Catastrophic” Outcomes. Here’s an excerpt of a story at The Hill: “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) noted Wednesday that a carbon tax could generate “significant” revenues for the United States and avert “catastrophic” effects of climate change. CBO said in a new report that there are many uncertainties about how to design and implement a carbon tax, but waiting too long to curb greenhouse gas emissions would have clear results. “[D]elays would increase the expected damage from climate change by increasing the risk of very costly, potentially even catastrophic, outcomes. … In general, the risk of costly damage is higher as the extent of warming increases and as the pace of warming picks up; thus, failing to limit emissions soon increases that risk,” the report said.…”

Seeking Clarity On Terrible Tornadoes In A Changing Climate. Here’s an excerpt of an Andy Revkin article at The New York Times: “The vulnerability is almost entirely the result of fast-paced, cost-cutting development patterns in tornado hot zones, and even if there were a greenhouse-tornado connection, actions that constrain greenhouse-gas emissions, while wise in the long run would not have a substantial influence on climate patterns because of intertia in the climate system. Some climate scientists see compelling arguments for accumulating heat and added water vapor fueling the kinds of turbulent storms that spawn tornadoes. But a half century of observations in the United States show no change in tornado frequency and a declining frequency of strong tornadoes…”

Photo credit above: “Billy McElrath, left, sits on a 1968 convertible Corvette buried under rubble in what was the garage of his home in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 21, 2012. The residents of Moore, Okla., affected by a deadly tornado, are coming back to find their belongings scattered and their homes left in pieces.” (AP Photo/Sean Murphy)

Why Rational People Buy Into Conspiracy Theories. I thought this was interesting – here’s a clip from a New York Times story: “…While psychologists can’t know exactly what goes on inside our heads, they have, through surveys and laboratory studies, come up with a set of traits that correlate well with conspiracy belief. In 2010, Swami and a co-author summarized this research in The Psychologist, a scientific journal. They found, perhaps surprisingly, that believers are more likely to be cynical about the world in general and politics in particular. Conspiracy theories also seem to be more compelling to those with low self-worth, especially with regard to their sense of agency in the world at large. Conspiracy theories appear to be a way of reacting to uncertainty and powerlessness…”

Read More

The legislation is an outgrowth of enhanced efforts by the PCA, BWSR and the DNR to better target nonpoint pollution sources, and environmental groups working together as a “water cluster” and introducing a bill this session called the “Clean Water Accountability Act.”

The Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy (MCEA), the Minnesota Environmental Partnership (MEP), Clean Water Action (CWA) and our own Conservation Minnesota (CM) led the effort to provide priorities for nonpoint pollution restoration and accountability for the public cleanup dollars.  They realized that TMDL’s need deadlines for restoration on a water body, and specific sources of pollution need to be identified, not lumped together for disparate results.

Additionally, many completed TMDL’s have no plan in place for clear monitoring and reporting to the public.

So the WRAP plans will do this on a more regional basis for Minnesota’s 81 major watersheds, with TMDL’s being done with more detail within each watershed plan.

The PCA must ensure that each WRAP plan identify target dates for nonpoint restoration, and prioritize cleanup actions within the watershed.  There is funding initially for ten WRAP plans to be done annually.

A biennial report is required on the PCA web site to ascertain progress toward TMDL water quality goals and implementation progress.  The overall WRAP effort and new reporting activities should be a big help for the public to both understand and monitor the long-term efforts for water quality restoration.

4.53″ rain so far in May; that’s 2.14″ wetter than average, to date.

11.79″ precipitation since March 1, or 4.85″ wetter than normal.

ECMWF: Holiday Weekend Not A Total Loss. After the spring we’ve endured are you really surprised that the first holiday weekend of the summer season may be cooler than average, with a chance of showers? Me neither. The European model shows showers tapering early Saturday; most of the rain and embedded T-storms staying south/west of MSP Sunday and Memorial Day as temperatures slowly warm. We’ll see 80s next week, even an outside shot at 90 by Wednesday or Thursday.

American Models: A Plan B Memorial Day Weekend? There is significant difference in model solutions – U.S. models printing out considerable more rain this upcomign weekend, maybe some .7 to 1″ amounts Friday night, more scattered showers and T-showers Sunday and Monday as warmer air tries to push north into Minnesota. Although I’m leaning toward the (drier) ECMWF solution, try and keep your weekend expectations low. Maybe we’ll all be pleasantly surprised.

An Ill-Timed Warm Front. Warm air can’t just push cool air out of the way – cool air needs to retreat on it’s own. The GFS model above suggests a bit of a pushing and shoving match taking place in the skies above Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this weekend; scattered showers and T-storms – Memorial Day probably the mildest day of the 3 day weekend.

How Rare Are EF5 Tornadoes? Since 1950 there have been only 59, two in southwest Minnesota. The Moore, OK tornado was considered an EF5 with winds up to 210 mph. There were 6 in 2011; including the Joplin, MO tornado that occurred 2 years ago – May 22, 2011. According to Wikipedia the Joplin, MO tornado was the 7th deadliest (162 people died) and the costliest ($2.8 billion) single tornado in U.S. history. Map above showing the location and year EF5 tornadoes struck courtesy of NOAA SPC.

Moore In Bulls-Eye Twice; Science May Know Why. Here’s an excerpt from a story at CNN.com: “…Dallas-Fort Worth, Kansas City and St. Louis are also considered high risk for severe tornadoes, according to Harold Brooks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. Yet, none of those metro areas has been through what Moore has experienced. Monday’s storm caused enormous property destruction and killed at least two dozen people. Yet it was a relatively ordinary violent tornado,” according to Brooks, an acknowledged expert on the climatology and probability of twisters…”

Photo credit above: “An aerial view of the extensive damage caused by Monday’s tornado, near Oklahoma City and Moore, Okla., May 21, 2013. Oklahoma officials said they hoped to finish their search for survivors of a massive tornado by nightfall, a little more than 24 hours after the Oklahoma City area was slammed by a storm that killed dozens of people.” (Matthew Staver/The New York Times).

What Happens When A Tornado Hits? Here’s an excerpt of an interview I gave to Chris Hayes on MSNBC Monday evening, describing the dynamics of an EF4/EF5 tornado.

A Tornado Isn’t An Object, But Rather A Process. Tuesday night I had a chance ot explain how tornadoes form, the physics able to translate spin around a horizontal axis into a vertical axis (with the help of some great special effects). Here’s the video clip from “All In With Chris Hayes” on MSNBC. My segment is about 8:00 in.

When Tornadoes Are A Way Of Life. Here’s an excerpt of a radio interview I gave to Jennifer Ludden at NPR’s Talk of the Nation on Tuesday: ”…I think one of the issues that we have in this country is a certain degree of tornado fatigue. Seventy percent of all tornado warnings, Jennifer, are false alarms, you know? Nobody wants to get caught with their Doppler down. So any time we see rotation in a thunderstorm, the temptation is to issue the warning. But in the process, we’re all kind of bombarded with warnings. You start to tune out. And on a day like yesterday, you need to break through the clutter and the apathy and the cry-wolf syndrome and shape people viscerally and emotionally. And the words that you chose – I think any sociologist will tell you the words you choose are critical in conveying that level of risk. At one point, Mike Morgan actually said: If you don’t have an underground shelter, this tornado is unsurvivable. Get into your vehicle, try to drive away – which you never, ever hear. And yet, that was the magnitude of the tornado threat yesterday. The problem is with tornados, we don’t know right away if it’s an EF1 or an EF4...”

Tornadoes And Urban Sprawl: How Long Until A Major City Is Hit? Oklahomans know exactly what to do when a major tornado is approaching, living at Ground Zero of Tornado Alley. But what happens when a similar (extreme) tornado hits a major city or densely populated suburb? We’re not even close to being ready for that scale of weather disaster. Here’s a link to a video from WeatherNation TV: “Meteorologists Paul Douglas and Susie Martin look at the severe threat for the coming days, as well as the statistics and the role urban sprawl has when it comes to the risk of a strong tornado hitting a major city.“

Lessons From Moore Tornado Disaster. In today’s edition of Climate Matters I take a look at some of the implications of the Moore EF-5 tornado, including situational awareness, multiple information safety nets, and why you need to REALLY pay attention the next time a “Tornado Emergency” is issued for your area.

A Staggering Statistic. Meteorologist Patrick Marsh calculates that 220 tornadoes passed within 25 miles of Moore, Oklahoma from 1950 to 2012. Good grief.

The Rise Of DIY Tornado Shelters. Do you really need to spend thousands of dollars to retrofit a closet into a steel and concrete-reinforced “safe room”, able to withstand even an extreme tornado? There may be some things you can on your own. Here’s an excerpt of a timely story from AccuWeather.com: “…Homes without storm cellars or basements offer little protection from a tornado. While windowless rooms and closets offer more safety than other parts of the house, people are still left vulnerable to tragedy when storms strong enough to level entire structures come through. Storm shelters are built to withstand winds that standard household rooms are not equipped to handle. There have been cases of safe rooms remaining completely intact, protecting the people inside, as the entire building around it crumbles to the ground in a tornado. As people try to prepare for the worst, companies that produce do-it-yourself storm and tornado shelters are reporting a sharp increase in sales…”

Photo credit above: “Robert Hanna, civil engineer, and Jeff Ice, quality assurance inspector, both from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, check out a tornado shelter.” Photo courtesy of US Army Corps of Engineers

NOAA Satellite Malfunctions; May Affect Forecasts. This is not a good development. Meteorologist Andrew Freedman at Climate Central has the story; here’s an excerpt: “As the weather system that spawned the deadly Moore tornado moves eastward, the main weather satellite used for observing and forecasting conditions across eastern North America and the Atlantic Ocean has gone offline. It’s the second malfunction since September 2012, when a technical glitch was fixed by engineers working from the ground. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which operates the nation’s fleet of weather satellites, the satellite, known as GOES-13, initially malfunctioned at 11:40 p.m. eastern time on Tuesday. An initial recovery procedure was unsuccessful at restoring it to operation…”

Graphic credit above: “NOAA rending of a GOES satellite.” Credit: NOAA.

Beer Warning. If this web site doesn’t make you thirsty, I don’t know what will. It’s a local (Minnetonka) company with a marketing hook that is sure to get people interested, especially meteorologists. Come to think of it my doctor tells me I’m not drinking enough good beer.

Spring: Missing In Action. No, it didn’t feel like late May yesterday – I’m just happy it didn’t snow. Where the sun was out temperatures shot up close to 70 at International Falls and 68 Hibbing. With thick clouds spitting light rain temperatures were 15 degrees cooler than average, highs ranging from a brisk 50 at St. Cloud to 54 in the Twin Cities and 60 at Rochester.

Climate Stories…

Making Sense Of The Moore Tornado In A Climate Context. Climate Central meteorologist Andrew Freedman does a good job connecting the dots; here’s an excerpt: ”…Tornado data does not reveal any clear trends in tornado occurrence or deaths that would suggest a clear tie to global warming, at least not yet. A recent paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that the occurrence of EF-1 and stronger tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale has shown no trend since 1954, which was the first year of near real-time data collection. Instead, an increase in tornado counts of EF-0 or stronger tornadoes has been attributed to an uptick in observations of very weak tornadoes. The Enhanced Fujita Scale measures tornado strength based on the extent and type of damage that they cause (no surface weather station has ever survived a direct tornado strike to take wind measurements from inside a twister)…”

Graphic credit above: “Probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a location as averaged from 1982-2011. This shows the highest odds of severe weather on Monday were in Oklahoma.” Credit: Storm Prediction Center.

Tornadoes, Climate Variability and Climate Change. NOAA has a fact sheet on what we know, and what we don’t know, regarding tornado frequency and intensity in a warming atmosphere. Here’s a link to the PDF.

Seeking Clarity On Terrible Tornadoes In A Changing Climate. Here’s an excerpt of an Andy Revkin article at The New York Times: “The vulnerability is almost entirely the result of fast-paced, cost-cutting development patterns in tornado hot zones, and even if there were a greenhouse-tornado connection, actions that constrain greenhouse-gas emissions, while wise in the long run would not have a substantial influence on climate patterns because of intertia in the climate system. Some climate scientists see compelling arguments for accumulating heat and added water vapor fueling the kinds of turbulent storms that spawn tornadoes. But a half century of observations in the United States show no change in tornado frequency and a declining frequency of strong tornadoes…”

Photo credit above: “Billy McElrath, left, sits on a 1968 convertible Corvette buried under rubble in what was the garage of his home in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 21, 2012. The residents of Moore, Okla., affected by a deadly tornado, are coming back to find their belongings scattered and their homes left in pieces.” (AP Photo/Sean Murphy)

Why Rational People Buy Into Conspiracy Theories. I thought this was interesting – here’s a clip from a New York Times story: “…While psychologists can’t know exactly what goes on inside our heads, they have, through surveys and laboratory studies, come up with a set of traits that correlate well with conspiracy belief. In 2010, Swami and a co-author summarized this research in The Psychologist, a scientific journal. They found, perhaps surprisingly, that believers are more likely to be cynical about the world in general and politics in particular. Conspiracy theories also seem to be more compelling to those with low self-worth, especially with regard to their sense of agency in the world at large. Conspiracy theories appear to be a way of reacting to uncertainty and powerlessness…”

Read More

.38″ rain fell yesterday at Twin Cities International Airport.

Low 70s return by Memorial Day.

80s expected the latter half of next week; increasing severe storm risk.

The Tornado Outbreak Of May 20, 2013. Here’s the very latest from the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma: “Damage survey teams are continue to survey the damage path of the Newcastle-Moore tornado that occurred on May 20, 2013. We will be adding more information to web pages for this event during the next few days.

Fast Facts

• A rating of EF-5 has been given to the tornado that affected the Newcastle, south OKC, and Moore areas in McClain and Cleveland Counties.
• The tornado had.a path length of approximately 17 miles and was on the ground for approximately 40 minutes from 2:56 PM – 3.26 PM CDT.
• The preliminary maximum path width is 1.3 miles.

Photo credit above: “This Tuesday, May 21, 2013 aerial photo shows a residential area of Moore, Okla. destroyed by Monday’s tornado. A huge tornado roared through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school with a direct blow as children and teachers huddled against winds.” (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez).

Tornado Tracks Streak Across Oklahoma. Here’s an excerpt from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory: “The rotation of tornadoes creates a distinctive signature in radar data, and can be used to estimate the track that the system takes over land. This image shows the rotational velocity of the systems that passed over Oklahoma on the afternoon of May 20, 2013. A single cohesive structure can be seen to cut across seven counties, with Moore directly in the middle…”

From Alerts Broadcaster (issued Tuesday morning):

Our Worst Fear Confirmed: A Violent (Urban) Tornado. The tornado that formed west of Moore, Oklahoma yesterday went from EF-1 to EF-5 strength within 10-15 minutes, responding to favorable conditions aloft (powerful wind shear coupled with an explosively unstable atmosphere). Tornado Watches were posted roughly 2 hours ahead of time, Tornado Warnings issued by the OKC NWS at least 30 minutes in advance. The problem? If you don’t have a basement or underground shelter the odds of surviving a direct hit from an EF-4 or EF-5 are small – even well constructed brick and mortar homes can be scraped down to foundation with an EF-4′s 180-200 mph winds.

* Death toll stands at 24, although I expect this to go up as recovery efforts continue today. Hundreds are injured; many residents still missing. As many as 20,000 people may be homeless.
* 30 square miles impacted by moderate to extensive tornado damage.
* This may top Joplin as the most expensive tornado in U.S. history. The May, 2011 Joplin tornado came in at $2.8 billion. I expect the 2013 Moore tornado to be comparable, probably $2-3 billion in total damage. There’s a good chance this will be America’s most expensive tornado on record.

Moore Damage Path. Yesterday’s mile-wide path is in green, the 1999 EF-5 path is in red, the 2003 tornado in blue. KFOR.com has a good interactive map here.

Close-Up Of Damage Path. Again, the green-shaded area shows yesterday’s track, a wider path than 1999 and 2003. Thousands of homes and businesses were impacted. Fewer than 1 in 10 Oklahomans have basements or storm shelters – bedrock makes it costly to excavate. Some have storm shelters, steel and concrete-reinforced closets and garages, but an EF-4 can be unsurvivable if you can’t get below grade, below ground.

Ground Zero. Here is an aerial map with path superimposed, showing where some of the most destructive (and deadly) winds hit, including Plaza Towers Elementary School, where loss of life was high. Photo credit: BBC, AP, Google.

Plaza Towers Elementary School. The before/after imagery is stark. This tornado will reignite the debate over school safety and the need for reinforced shelters in all public buildings. Photo credit: AP.

Moore Medical Center. Damage is significant at Moore Medical Center; most operations have been shifted to other nearby medical facilities. Photo credit: AP.

Damage Swath. Here are before/after aerials from subdivisions west of Santa Fe Avenue. Photo credit: AP

War Zone. As meteorologists we’re trained to think clinically, like doctors. Look at the data, evaluate the models, make a prediction. Leave emotion out of the mix. But you can’t look at these images (as a parent, as a human being) without being heartbroken. The damage is consistent with an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado. Photo credit: AP.

More Imagery. Here is a before/after comparison of homes in a neighborhood east of South Eastern Avenue.

* before the tornado hit several Oklahoma City TV meteorologists encouraged people in the direct path of this tornado to “drive away”. The reality: if an EF-4 strength tornado is approaching and you don’t have a basement or shelter your odds of survival are small. Statistically it’s better to get into your vehicle and try to outrun the tornado. The problem: as good as Doppler radar is it can be difficult estimating the intensity of a tornado, even 10-15 minutes in advance. We can see rotation, even a hook echo, but is it an EF-1 or a monster EF-5? Unlike hurricanes, where we can see satellite imagery and estimate strength, tornadoes are much more difficult to predict in advance: track and ultimate intensity.

* there is no evidence that we’re seeing more EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes, which comprise less than 1-2% of ALL tornadoes that strike the USA. A warmer atmosphere increases instability and buoyancy, but wind shear in a warming world should decrease over time. More research is needed, but we can’t (yet) connect the dots and claim that there is causal connection. More research is needed.

Wednesday Risk. No moderate threat tomorrow, a slight risk of storms capable of hail and damaging straight-line winds from Detroit, Columbus and Cleveland to Pittsburg, State College, Buffalo and Rochester. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in and near this region tomorrow, but probably not the scope and severity of the tornadoes that have struck the Southern Plains in recent days.

Summary: It’s our worst fear as meteorologists: a large (urban) tornado. One glaring problem: “tornado fatigue”. As a nation we are still issuing too many tornado warnings (at least that’s the consensus among most private meteorologists I know). Nobody wants to miss a tornado – that’s the cardinal sin, so NWS issues warnings on just about every rotating thunderstorm they find on Doppler. The FAR or false alarm rate is still hovering near 70%. Stated differently, 7 in 10 tornado warnings produce NO tornado. This leads to apathy (“they’re crying wolf!”) and when the big tornado does materalize, when our worst fears are realized, many residents simply aren’t ready to take the measures necessary to protect their lives.

In a hurricane you have days to prepare; a tornado: 5-30 minutes. The average lead time, nationally, is 13-15 minutes. Last year I proposed new terminnology, leveraging “Alerts” (for rotation based storms) and “Tornado Emergencies” (for confirmed tornadoes on the ground moving into urban areas). This is a reflection of land-use trends and suburban sprawl. Tornadoes that would have hit farmland 10-30 years ago are now hitting subdivisions. As metropolitan areas expand the probability of a direct strike from major tornadoes goes up steadily over time. Last year I wrote an article for Huffington Post, recounting a severe storm conference, where a well-respected structural engineer/meteorologist predicted that, within our lifetime, a single U.S. tornado will hit an urban area, even a downtown, with over 1,000 fatalities from a single twister. Yesterday was a reminder (to me) that his prediction may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. It’s land-use, statistics and probabilities, another unpleasant symptom of expanding metropolitan areas.

A Survival Plan For America’s Tornado Danger Zone. Here’s an excerpt of a timely story from The New York Times: ”The horror confronting residents and emergency workers probing the tornado wreckage in Oklahoma is unimaginable for those of use elsewhere. Collapsed schools, disintegrated homes, crushed cars and more. The main focus should be on aid. But it’s worth beginning a conversation about ways to live safer in such hazard zones given that this storm season is just getting under way and that big regions of America’s tornado hot zone have deep vulnerability resulting from runaway growth and a human tendency to discount threats that have a low probability but disastrous potential. (The same issues are driving exposure to danger in hurricane zones.)…”

Photo credit above: “The rubble of a destroyed neighborhood lay mixed together where it fell Tuesday, May 21, 2013 a day after a tornado moved through Moore, Okla. The huge tornado roared through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school with a direct blow as children and teachers huddled against winds.” (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

What Happens When The TV Meteorologist Has To Take Cover? I’ve wondered this many times myself: “what happens if the tornado approaches the TV station?” Go down with the ship? Here’s a clip from NBC News and mashable.com: “A massive storm generated several tornadoes on Sunday in the Midwest, hitting Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The tornado in Kansas got so bad that news station staff at the NBC affiliate TV station in Wichita, Kan. had to leave in the middle of a live broadcast to take cover. In the dramatic video, the channel’s meteorologist JD Rudd is talking about the extreme weather in front of a radar image of the storm when, after a few seconds, producers tells him it’s time to leave…”

Hurricane Season Comes With Plan For Better Forecast. This story comes as something of a relief; I’m sick of talking about the ECMWF (European) weather model. It’s time for the U.S. to step on the gas and retake the lead in weather modeling. Here’s an excerpt of a Jason Samenow article at The Washington Post: ”…The summer and fall hold the possibility of big storms but also steps toward better forecasts. An infusion of Sandy-related dollars from Congress will help the National Weather Service upgrade two supercomputers that are used in virtually all U.S. weather predictions. That, in turn, could close what some have called an embarrassing gap between the primary U.S. and European computer models. The European model has generally been more adept at forecasting the paths and intensities of major storms, and that pattern held in  October when the it projected the lethal westward turn by Sandy even as the early U.S. model showed it drifting to the east harmlessly, toward open ocean…”

Tropical Whispers. The GFS forecast, valid midday Wednesday, June 5 shows a possible tropical depression or weak tropical storm approaching south Florida. Confidence level: very low, but the models continue to hint at development in the tropics. We’ll keep an eye on what may evolve into “Andrea”. Image: WSI.

Sluggish Warming Trend. As much as I want 80s (like many of you), I’m starting to dread the warm fronts just a little, in light of the recent uptick in severe storms and tornadoes. After a very slow start tornado season is upon us, the weather we should have seen 2-4 weeks ago. Everything has been delayed, including (sustained) summer heat. A rainy day today gives way to comfortable sunshine tomorrow, more showers Friday night, and then a drying trend over the weekend. Memorial Day appears to be the warmest day of the holiday weekend, temperatures warming to or above 80 by the latter half of next week.

A Less Optimistic Holiday Weekend Prediction. I’m basing a partly sunny, dry Sunday and Monday primarily on ECMWF model data, but the GFS solution (above) is definitely wetter for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest Sunday and Memorial Day, especially southern Minnesota. I’m not buying this solution just yet, but it is a holiday (with high “bust potential”), so I’m not ruling it out either. What can go wrong, and what time?

Will Summer Stick This Time? I think so, but considering how erratic the jet stream has been this “spring” it’s anyone’s guess. GFS data shows highs reaching the 80s by the end of next week, a longer stretch of 80s to near 90F. the first week of June. We’ll see.

Welcome To The Programmable World. When all our devices start talking to each other, watch out. I keep picturing The Terminator coming from the future to save us from ourselves. Connected, programmable devices are already here, and the trends are undeniable, as described in this terrific article at Wired; here’s an excerpt: “…In this future, the intelligence once locked in our devices now flows into the universe of physical objects. Technologists have struggled to name this emerging phenomenon. Some have called it the Internet of Things or the Internet of Everything or the Industrial Internet—despite the fact that most of these devices aren’t actually on the Internet directly but instead communicate through simple wireless protocols. Other observers, paying homage to the stripped-down tech embedded in so many smart devices, are calling it the Sensor Revolution. But here’s a better way to think about what we’re building: It’s the Programmable World. After all, what’s remarkable about this future isn’t the sensors, nor is it that all our sensors and objects and devices are linked together. It’s the fact that once we get enough of these objects onto our networks, they’re no longer one-off novelties or data sources but instead become a coherent system, a vast ensemble that can be choreographed, a body that can dance…”

Relapse. Yesterday was an acquired taste, weatherwise, cool, misty and gray. Don’t complain about the chill, Paul. Got it. I’m talking to myself in print – not a good sign. Tuesday highs ranged from a brisk 46 at International Falls to 50 St. Cloud and 65 in the Twin Cities.

Climate Stories…

Are There More Tornadoes Because Of Global Warming? The short answer is “probably not”, but the data set is somewhat unreliable (plenty of noise in the data). Increases in water vapor and instability in a warming world MAY be at least partially offset by a decrease in wind shear (as northern latitudes warm faster than southern laitudes), but the research is still preliminary. Dry areas are getting drier, wet areas wetter, with a causal connection to spikes in flooding rains and even hurricane intensity. But the link with (severe) tornadoes is not obvious, at least not yet. Minnesota climate scientist Greg Laden has more in this comprehensive post at scienceblogs.com: “There are good reasons to believe that global warming leads to more storminess, but the exact nature of that transition is unclear and hard to measure. Part of the reason for this difficulty is that a given type of storm may become more likely under certain conditions caused by climate change, while a different kind of storm may become less likely, with the “storminess” overall increasing but doing so indifferent ways across time. Also, the most severe, and thus possibly the most important, weather events are infrequent so it is difficult to see changes over time with any statistical confidence. I address many of these issues here and here…”

Image credit: this frame-grab from the 1986 Brooklyn Park, Springbrook Nature Center tornado courtesy of KARE-11 and tcmedia.com.

Read More

Velocity Field. Here is the radial velocity Doppler field 10-15 minutes before Moore was struck, a “couplet” showing violently divering winds. Doppler has revolutionized the tracking of tornadoes, but 15-30 minutes before a direct strike it’s still impossible to determine the severity of a brewing tornado.

Beyond Words. Usually a tornado is too small to show up on Doppler. Usually. Yesterday’s Moore, Oklahoma EF-4+ was 1-2 miles wide, kicking up unprecedented levels of debris as it mowed down neighborhood after neighborhood. The resulting “debris ball”, the actual tornado itself, was hard to miss on Doppler. A Tornado Watch was issued for OKC at least 2 hours before the tornado struck, a 30 minute Tornado Warning before the actual funnel struck.

Best Smartphone Weather Warning Apps? Subjective? You bet. Could one of these apps save your life? Absolutely. I’ve tested a couple hundred weather apps so you don’t have to waste your money. Below I have a list of what I consider to be the 3 best, must-have apps for your smartphone. These apps are revolutionizing the way consumers get time-sensitive, potentially life-saving weather warnings. Check below for more details.

1). Take a portable NOAA Weather Radio. The First Alert portable NOAA Weather Radio above costs a whopping $31, and it could save your life .With a little digging you can find portable, hand-held NOAA Weather Radios that should work in rural areas, even the North Woods. Here’s a good list of other portable options, thanks to Google. It’s true that signal reception can be a problem, but I always camp with a portable NOAA Weather Radio. I may be a weather geek, but I want to live to tell my grandkids about my camping adventures!

WeatherNation TV. Full disclosure: one of my companies is participating in this new, national weather channel. The mobile app is powerful; in addition to watching the live stream you can personalize and localize your weather, including severe storm updates: 
Severe Alerts – Keep up to date with the latest severe weather for your current location as well as all of your saved favorites.

View – With view feature, you can watch WeatherNation on demand with advanced adaptive bit rate streaming to provide you with the best viewing experience. With WeatherNation’s view feature, you can watch WeatherNation’s 24/7 service LIVE around the clock.

Sync Calendar – With our sync calendar feature, you can automatically and effortlessly look up weather information associated to events on your iPhone’s calendar. It’s a simple way to keep up with the weather wherever you are or may go.

Maps/Radars – WeatherNation provides the latest in storm tracking with our interactive weather maps/radars. You decide the overlays you want to see from radar, satellite, visible satellite, global satellite, advisories, snow depth, current temperatures, current winds, current dewpoint, current humidity, current wind chill, and current heat index. Select specific point data as well like storm cells, storm reports, climate records, or even wildfires. You can also select the type of map you prefer from a standard base map, satellite image base map, or even a hybrid.

From Alerts Broadcaster (issued Monday morning):

* Mild Geomagnetic Storm impacting far northern latitudes – not expected to impact power grid across USA, Asia and Europe right now.

* 17+ U.S. tornadoes in the last 24 hours; another outbreak expected later today over central USA.
* Stalled storm increases flood potential Upper Midwest and Mississippi River Valley.
* 3-10″ rains predicted for southern China – more flooding likely.
* “Andrea” in the Gulf of Mexico within 2 weeks?

Low Geomagnetic Storm Risk. Most of the energy from the most recent solar CME is impacting far northern latitudes, north of 60 degrees, but NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center continues to monitor the current event. Here’s the latest: “The almost exclusively northward embedded magnetic field in the CME has resulted in no Geomagnetic Storm conditions at this writing. Things could change quickly if the field goes southward. Check here for status updates.”

Volatile, Violent Pattern. Updated last night: Dynamics are favorable for more tornadic storms again today over the nation’s midsection. As many as 17 tornadoes touched down Sunday from Texas to Missouri, including the possible EF-4 or EF-5 tornado that ravaged Moore, Oklahoma. More details on Monday touchdowns from SPC.

Another Moderate Threat Today. It’s worth repeating that when NOAA SPC upgrades the severe risk from “slight” to “moderate” it’s a pretty good tip-off of larger, long-track tornadoes, the ones that produce most of the damage and injuries. The highest risk area today is from Tulsa to Joplin, Columbia and the suburbs of Kansas City, but an isolated tornado can be expected across Iowa, western Illinois, even southwest Wisconsin.

* It’s worth pointing out that SPC did have much of Oklahoma in a moderate risk; not the immediate Moore area, but when the moderate risk is that close you know it could be a very busy day with an enhanced risk of large, violent, long-track tornadoes.

Soggy Holding Pattern. Once again weather systems have stalled, allowing a persistent fetch of warm, moist, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico to surge northward, repeatedly, day after day, fueling a slow-moving storm in the upper atmosphere. 2-4″ rains have already been reported since late last week over the Upper Midwest, where topsoil is saturated, waterlogged. Any additional downpours later today and tomorrow will run off into streets and streams. Flood Watches are posted for much of North Dakota, Minnesota and western Wisconsin; flood warnings (meaning flooding is being reported) from southeastern Minnesota into Illinois and Missouri as the Mississippi River continues above flood stage.

More Flooding For South China. Computer models show an additional 3-10″ rain over the next week over much of southern China. More flash flooding and river flooding can be expected with possible impacts to facilities and transportation.

Andrea? We’re going out on a limb here, but in the spirit of trying to give you as much of a heads-up as possible, long-range models continue to suggest tropical development in the Caribbean, with a possible tropical storm entering the Gulf of Mexico the first few days of June. Confidence levels are low, but facilities from Texas to Florida should remain alert. I have a hunch hurricane season may come early this year.

Summary: The latest X-class solar flare (there have been 4 since Mother’s Day) produced a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) capable of minor fluctuations to the grid, mainly over far northern latitudes over the next 24 hours. NASA and NOAA don’t appear particularly concerned over this outbreak of Space Weather; we’ll continue to monitor conditions, which can change quickly. Another tornado outbreak over the central USA is likely later today; an atmospheric holding pattern squeezing out more flooding T-storms as far north as the Twin Cities, Madison and Fargo. Many streams and rivers will continue to flood across southern China, and we’re watching for possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean within 2 weeks. If sustained winds top 39 mph we’ll have Tropical Storm Andrea. It’s still (very) early, and we’ll watch the tropics and keep you posted.

Mostly Soggy Into Friday, Then A Break? The ECMWF guidance is encouraging for the weekend, a wet start Saturday giving way to mostly-dry conditions Sunday and Memorial Day. I know – a holiday. What can possibly go wrong. Nothing severe, no 100-degree heat spikes either. A chilly, rainy Wednesday gives way to highs near 70 by the weekend.

Read More

Wet enough for ya? Not sure how much more rain my yard can take. Between the puddles and the neighbors doggie landmines, not sure I’ll be playing bocce ball anytime soon.

Scattered showers and storms are in the forecast again Sunday as the storm system continues to wobble overhead, what else would you expect? Some of the isolated storms that develop later Sunday across southeastern Minnesota could be a little on the more vigorous side.

A cooler and more stable air mass moves in on the northern side of the low by Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly just lingering rain showers. I think the clouds will finally get out of here by the end of the week and you might actually be able to get out and mow that lawn if you haven’t already.

I’m curious to see how the Minnesota drought will have changed after all this rain. My hunch is that many of those smaller swamps and ponds close to home will have filled up quite nicely; perfect for a fresh brood of skeeters. In no time you’ll be slapping those pesky blood suckers… Welcome to Minnesota where Mosquitoes are as big as buzzards. Don’t forget to check the kids for ticks if they’re in tall grass or the woods!
________________________________________________________________
Todd’s Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

MONDAY: Lingering shower/storm possible early AM. Breaks of midday sun, then more showers/storms develop by late afternoon/evening across southeastern Minnesota (some could be strong). High: 78. Winds: SE 10-15

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms possible overnight. Low: 58

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers, isolated thunder. High: 73

WEDNESDAY: Damp. Cloudy and cooler with passing showers. Wake-up: 51. High: 62

THURSDAY: Ditch the umbrellas! More sun. Wake-up: 47. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 47. High: 71.

SATURDAY: Warmer. Increasing clouds with an isolated PM shower/storm? Wake-up: 52. High: 73.

SUNDAY: Unsettled. Afternoon grilling plans may be delayed due to spotty thunder? Wake-up: 55. High: 75
__________________________________________________________________

Scratch and Sniff?
Thanks to my good friend Jill Stewart Kellar for the picture below who said that she wished the picture was ‘scratch and sniff’ – LOL – It looks AMAZING, but it can’t smell it!

Wind Map
Here’s an interesting look at wind flow across the country. Note the southerly wind flow east of the two low pressure systems. This is responsible for the warm and humid air that has been in place across the middle part of the country as of late. This has also helped set the stage for all the severe weather that we’ve seen over the last few days.
See the latest wind flow map HERE:

 Radar From Sunday…
Take a look at how active the radar was across the middle part of the country from Minnesota to Oklahoma. At this on Sunday, there were a number of watches and warnings in progress and there had been reported tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma!

Severe Storm Reports
Here are a few of the storm reports from the very active Sunday across the middle part of the country.

Oklahoma Damage
Take a look at this photo taken in Luther, OK from the Oklahoma County Sheriff’s office on Sunday evening.

 Oklahoma Tornado
It’s amazing what technology can do in this day in age… Take a look at the radar image from Oklahoma Sunday evening northeast of Oklahoma City, OK near Fallis, OK. The classic “Hook Echo” with red and green close to gether on the velocity signature indicatues intense rotation.

This is what it looked like in a 3D view… It’s almost like you can see the tornado touching the ground!

Thanks to my good friend Amy Bettwy for the picture below… in the new radar upgrade to Dual Pole Radar, you can actually see a “TDS” or a Tornado Debris Signature! In the image below, you can see a dark spot over Fallis, OK where the Dual Pole radar may actually be picking up debris vaulted high in the air!

Severe Threat Continues…
The Storm Prediction Center continues the severe thunderstorm threat for Monday across the middle part of the country. Keep in mind that this threat will likely change as the storm continues to settle into the middle part of the country.
Severe Threat Monday
…SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY…

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS IA/IL INTO MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO INCREASE UVV ACROSS A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF SHARP WARM FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM LOW NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER…EWD INTO NRN WI AT PEAK
HEATING. WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE/SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION…STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MN/WI AND SBCAPE COULD EASILY RISE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES ISOLATED TORNADOES…IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED.

Severe Threat Tuesday
…SYNOPSIS…
SLIGHT WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LINGERING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD…AS A DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE
WRN/NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL U.S.
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.

FARTHER N — ACROSS MO AND AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION…THE SCENARIO IS EVEN MORE UNCLEAR…AS MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE…MORE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION — AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR DUE TO MORE MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW ALOFT — SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. STILL…LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED. THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT…THOUGH STORMS/LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 Minnesota Storms
Thanks to my good friend Ben Lewis for this picture out of the Twin Cities. Heavy rain and gusty winds was all he reported on what he called a “Lil Baby Chase” – LOL - Thanks Benny!!

More Heavy Rain on the Way…
The same slow moving storm system will be responsible for additional heavy rainfall across the middle part of the country through midweek. There still may be additional 1″ to 3″+ amount by Wednesday!

Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Read More

Saturday’s gully washer brought nearly 1″ to 2″ of rain across parts of central Minnesota. The officially tally from AM Saturday at the Minneapolis Airport was only 0.10″ shy of the daily record 1.57″ set in 1882.

Don’t put away the umbrellas just yet. More thunder is expected through early next week. Some of the storms later today across southern Minnesota could reach severe limits. Pay attention to local forecasts through the afternoon and evening, there may be stronger rumbles close to home.
The same storm system will wobble slowly through the Midwest through early next week, keeping the threat for showers and storms in the forecast through at least Tuesday. Showers finally taper by Wednesday; Thursday and Friday look even better with more sun and warmer temperatures.
Most Minnesota lakes are now finally ice free! Several of those boasting their latest ice out dates in recorded history. Water temps are still a bit chilly for a dip, but they’re warming fast!
__________________________________________________________________________

Todd’s Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible. Some PM storms could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota. High: 82.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers/storm continue early. Some may be strong to severe with heavy rain. Low: 64

MONDAY: Still gray. Spotty thundershowers. High: 75

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers, isolated thunder. Wake-up: 57. High: 67

WEDNESDAY: Passing shower? Peeks of afternoon sunshine possible. Wake-up: 50. High: 63

THURSDAY: Lingering AM shower. Finally drying out. More PM sun. Wake-up: 44. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.

SATURDAY: Warmer yet. Mix of sun and clouds to kick off Memorial Weekend. Wake-up: 54. High: 72.
_________________________________________________________________________

MN Fishing Opener Take 2…
Thanks to my good friends Bob and Kim Jones for sharing this picture. Their daughter Danielle caught this near 28″ walleye on Lake Mille Lacs!! Nice catch Danielle!! You may recall last weekend, Lake Mille Lacs was in the news as it was still ice covered and “Ice shoves” or “Ice heaves” were piling up along the south shore up to 25ft. Thanks to 30mph to 40mph winds, ice shoves were responsible for shattering glass patio doors at the Izatys Resort!

Lake Mille Lacs Officially “Ice Out”
Official “Ice out” dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded… Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!

Curious about your favorite lake? See the MN DNR Ice Out Map HERE:

Minnesota Hail
Thanks to the National Weather Service via Susan Buss for the picture below out of Windom, MN from Friday. This is part of the same storm that produced a tornado on Friday near Lakefield and Wilder.

See more HERE:

SUNDAY SEVERE?
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Minnesota under a risk of severe weather for Sunday… Stay tuned for further updates and changes as they become available. Stay tuned to local forecast Sunday afternoon/evening as strong to severe storms may be possible close to home. Keep in mind that the threat area will likely change as the storm moves into the central part of the country…

See the latest severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center HERE:

Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows ‘spin’ in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that’s why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.

Severe Weather Threat Ahead
The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you’re in these areas you’ll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumling close to home.

SUNDAY THREAT
…REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS…CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY…

…SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY….

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY1…THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
WRN MO BY 20/00Z. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF…WITH THE NAM FAVORING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SPEED
MAX/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THE MORE DISPLACED NAM SPEED
MAX IS CORRECT…IF SO THEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD EAST OF DEPICTED MDT RISK.

FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE FORECAST HEIGHT FIELD/WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION…AT SUNRISE
IT APPEARS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL
NEB…SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN KS…EXTENDING SSWWD
INTO NWRN TX. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY STRONG WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY…ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL KS…SSWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX BY 21Z. IF HOWEVER THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN
THE DRYLINE MAY MIX TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE
REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE
INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS…THEN SWD INTO
OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S…TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY…VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO
WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK.

…SERN U.S…

REMNANT MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELD.
GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.

MONDAY THREAT
…SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU…
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC…A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY…SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SFC LOW NEAR THE RED
RIVER NEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK. THE MODELS APPEAR TO ORGANIZE AN
MCS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEWD INTO
THE OZARKS DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TX AT
00Z/TUE SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION…LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALSO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 50O M2/S2 RANGE BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS SUGGESTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TORNADOES. IF MESOSCALE CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST…THEN A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT THIS FAR OUT…IS THAT MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE OUTCOME AND THAT THE SCENARIO
WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENTED BY THE MODELS.

…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES…
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID
TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS A
BROAD CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES…ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET…SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A
BROAD AREA WHERE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT.

Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Read More

Thanks to a particular ‘Common’ voice on midday radio for the shout out Friday. He and others that may have cancelled tee times Friday due to the doom and gloom forecast, may have felt a little let down when their backyard rain gauges weren’t overflowing. 1″ to 2″ of heavy rain fell 50 miles south of the Twin Cities by AM Friday leaving most across the Metro cool, damp and breezy.

Rain and thunder remains in the forecast over the next several days, but Saturday may turn out to be the drier day as a warm front lifts into northern Minnesota. A warmer and stickier air mass settles in to the southern half of the state today with spotty showers and storms generally across far northern Minnesota and the Dakotas.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted stronger storm potential in neighboring states later today and again tomorrow; we’ll get the leftovers of whatever develops south and west of us. Sunday looks like the soggier day of the weekend for us with soaking rains still possible through early next week.

Smells of SPF may return later next week as the sun finally pops out and temps warm. An unsettled weather pattern may return next wknd.
_________________________________________________________
Todd’s Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SATURDAY: AM showers/storms lift into northern MN thru the day. Warmer/stickier afternoon. High: 81

SATURDAY NIGHT: Strong to severe storms across eastern South Dakota/Western MN. Thunder and heavy rain potential increases for the eastern Minnesota. Low: 67

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible. Some PM storms could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota. High: 82

MONDAY: Still gray. Spotty thundershowers. Wake-up: 64. High: 76

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers. Wake-up: 54. High: 66

WEDNESDAY: Sprinkles. Peeks of afternoon sunshine? Wake-up: 49. High: 64

THURSDAY: Finally drying out. More sun. Wake-up: 48. High: 68.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 53. High: 72.
________________________________________________________

Minnesota Tornadoes on Friday?
Two storms developed late Friday afternoon/evening across southwestern Minnesota with large hail and even tornado reports near Wilder and Lakefield in Jackson county.

This is what the cells looked like on Friday just prior to the southern cell turning tornadic. There were also reports of 2″ diameter hail near Lakefield and Windom.

Lovely Weather for a Duck
Thanks to Julie Hickstein for the picture below out of the Twin Cities from Friday. The soggy Friday weather was enough to make even this duck a little weird. Can you spot it?

Stormy Weather Ahead?
Billie Holiday once sang: ”Don’t know why there’s no sun up in the sky. Stormy Weather.” Of course she kept singing and it turned out that it had been raining since her man and her weren’t together anymore… I’ve had this song stuck in my head over the last several days while looking at weather maps. Take a look at NOAA’s HPC 5 day precipitation forecat below. A slow moving/waterlogged Pacific storm will wind up over the middle part of the country through next week and keep shower and thunder activity in place over some of the same areas over the next several days. Some may end up with 2″ to 4″+ by the time this storm wrings itself out next week.

Wind Map (Bookmark Worthy)
This is a bookmark worthy website for you if you’re interested. I tend to pull this map anytime there are storm system rolling through the country. It does a pretty good with surface features; i.e. fronts/highs/lows/etc. Note the counterclockwise rotation in the wind field across the High Plains. This is the developing low pressure system that will create strong to severe weather potential across the middle part of the country over the next few days.
See the animating website HERE:

 Warm & Sticky Weekend?
This slow moving storm will also churn up some warmer and stickier air across the Upper Midwest. MSP should see temps in the lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with dew points in the lower 60s. Next week, temps should fall into the 60s as the storm sits nearly on top of us!

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend.
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Read More

Jesuit priest Michel Guignas penned these words early on in the historic French expedition to the Dakota Indian Territory in present-day Minnesota while they lingered for a week struggling across the portage to the Wisconsin River. Little did he know this expedition would have far greater hardships than this challenging portage.

Father Guignas possessed a zealous but jovial personality that could be eccentric at times. At age 47 he was one of two Jesuit missionaries to accompany this French-Canadian government sponsored effort with the goal of occupying present-day Minnesota near Lake Pepin. They sought to establish for the first time a lasting alliance with the powerful Dakota Nation. The voyage through Wisconsin was made possible due to a tenuous truce with the renegade Fox Nation in central Wisconsin. The Fox had no desire to establish peaceful relations with the French or any other aliens to their territory. Nonetheless, the truce allowed the government expedition to pass through to reach the shores of Lake Pepin and the Dakota Nation by mid-September 1727.

Fort Beauharnois was established near present-day Frontenac on a point out into Lake Pepin. The small corps was soon beset by a lack of game for food; the illness of their commander and early spring flooding that inundated their little log fort. Those calamities were the least of their concerns as word arrived in spring that the Fox had recommenced hostilities with the French and other neighboring tribes. Further complicating this was the fact that some of the Dakota bands allied with the Fox against the French.

Father Guignas joined an expedition trying to escape down the Mississippi, but they were captured at the mouth of the Rock River in present-day Illinois by a band of the Kickapoo and Mascouten who held them captive for five months. This band hoped to either gain favor with the Fox by turning them over for execution or to obtain a ransom from the French. The band had a change of heart, sparing Father Guignas and his fellow sojourners. The remnants of the expedition would eventually make their way to safety back in Montréal via Mackinac Island a year later.

This tiresome fur-trading voyage is a good comparison to the voyage that the 2013 Renewable Energy Legislation (HF956/SF901) has taken. This bill sought to boost the use of solar power in Minnesota. Despite solar power being popular with Minnesota voters, the bill on several occasions along its journey through the Legislature looked like it was doomed from attacks by utilities and some business interests. Thanks to the tireless work of the bill authors, Rep. Melissa Hortman (DFL-Brooklyn Park) and Sen. John Marty (DFL-Roseville), the legislation safely passed this week during the chaotic end of session.

The bill expands the use of solar power as part of Minnesota’s renewable energy standard. The proposal in the long run will produce cheaper energy and help create locally grown jobs. Though the bill was as comprehensive as the initial bill proposed last January, it is still taking some positive steps forward for clean renewable energy. It requires investor-owned utilities like Xcel to generate at least 1.5 percent of their total electric retail sales from solar power by 2020. It focuses on helping small consumers expand solar power by requiring at least ten percent of this mandate to be met from projects of 20 kilowatts or less. It further requires the development of a community solar program modeled on a popular Xcel program in Colorado that helps groups of neighbors or businesses join together to jointly invest in solar installations.

The bill also contains a variety of distributed generation initiatives designed to make it easier for residential or business customers to generate their own electricity and get a fair price for excess energy they sell back to the utility. It provides further energy efficiency and conservation measures that are the least costly means of meeting our energy needs. The fact is that our best energy savings come from the energy we don’t use due to conservation.

Even though this bill did not accomplish everything we wanted and nearly failed on several occasions, it has created a base policy to build upon in the future to expand the renewable energy through solar power and conservation. I guess we can take our lead from Father Guignas. He would eventually return to the Mississippi Valley in the Dakota Nation near present-day Winona, Minnesota where he became one of the early missionaries to the area staying for several years. He helped lay the groundwork for future French fur traders to succeed in the region. He certainly owed his later success to the challenges he faced on his first expeditions. Let’s hope this year’s challenges laid the foundation for better things to come for Minnesota’s energy independence from clean renewable electricity.

I hope you were able to find your thunderwear out of the back of the closet this week. The extended forecast calls for thunderous downpours over the next several days, a recipe that will have your lawn green in no time!

The U.S. Drought Monitor released it’s latest outlook on Thursday and it still showed nearly 13% of Minnesota in a severe drought, down from nearly 15% last week. Keep in mind that 3 months ago, nearly 85% of the state was in a severe drought. There’s a silver lining to the cool and wet Spring that we’ve had so far; the drought is slowly easing!

2″ to 4″ of rain may be possible across parts of Minnesota by the time this storm wrings itself out 
sometime next week. There is literally rain/thunder in the forecast everyday until next Wednesday!

I have a hunch that many folks will need a new pair of thunderwear at some point next week as they’ll get some pretty good mileage throught the weekend.

I could even see a few strong storms around the state on Saturday.

According to Iowa Mesonet, the MSP County Warning Area has gone approximately 265 days without a tornado warning issued in the area. 2012 saw it’s first tornado on March 19th.
_____________________________________________________________

Todd’s Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Locally heavy rain likely. High: 68. Winds: ESE 10-15

SATURDAY: Humid, few strong to severe T-storms up North? High: 81

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible, cooler. Wake-up: 65. High: 79

MONDAY: Soggy. Scattered showers and storms. Wake-up: 64. High: 76

TUESDAY: More rain, rumbles possible. Wake-up: 58. High: 68

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Wake-up: 56. High: 69

THURSDAY: Drier day. Lawns look quite green. Wake-up: 53. High: 69
_______________________________________________________________

Deadly Texas Twisters
Wednesday evening was pretty scary for some folks in northern Texas as tornadoes developed just west of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. The most significant tornado touched down near Granbury, TX just after 8pm where at least 6 people died and more than 100 were injured. Thanks to DrTornadoCooley for the picture below out of Millsap, TX.

Granbury, TX Tornado

According to the National Weather Service out of Ft. Worth, TX the Granbury, TX tornado was considered to be an EF4 tornado. Look how it whipped this house right off of it’s foundation!

This is what the radar looked like Wednesday evening as tornadic storms were rolling through Millsap and Granbury, TX.

2013 Tornado Drought Continues
According to the Storm Prediction Center (without taking into account Wednesday’s tornadoes) there had been 251 PRELIMINARY tornadoes so far this year thru the 15th of May. Interestingly, that quite a bit below the average through today’s date!

2013 Compared to Average
Here are the numbers for 2013 vs. average through today’s date and note how much below average we are!

Heavy Rainfall
There is also a risk for heavy rainfall. NOAA’s HPC 5 day precipitation forecast suggests nearly 2″ to 4″ of rain possible in thundery downpours across the Red River Valley through early next week.

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend ahead!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Read More