85 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday, average high for mid-July.
90 F. high reported yesterday at Olivia, Morris and Willmar.
72 F. average high on September 15.
58 F. high on September 15, 2011.
Frost possible in the outlying suburbs of the Twin Cities, likely over central Minnesota Tuesday morning.
Trace of snow fell on the Twin Cities on September 15, 1916.
50 Degrees In 36 Hours? After peaking in the low to mid 80s today the mercury plungles behind a cold front whipped up by a vigorous Alberta Clipper. A few models are hinting at mid to upper 30s in the metro (suburbs) by Tuesday morning. The mercury rebounds into the 60s to near 70 by Wednesday before a reinforcing shot of Canadian air arrives by late week. Yep, almost time to dig out the jackets and sweatshirts. Like turning on a light switch.
More Downs Than Ups. Get ready for a temperature roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks. The first surge of chilly air arrives Monday, temperatures stuck in the 50s Tuesday. After a fleeting day of relative warmth Wednesday a second, even colder push arrives late in the week with 40s and low 50s Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF forecast highs (in Celsius above) show some moderation by Sunday with highs returning to the upper 60s.
“The first eight months of 2012 have gone into the books as the warmest January-August period on record for the continental US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The 12-month span ending in August 2012 was the warmest 12 months on record. The summer itself ranks third among the warmest summers on record.” – from a Christian Science Monitor article; details below.
“Only the USA has been experiencing extreme heat this year – the rest of the planet has been unusually cool.” Sorry, that statement doesn’t hold up. Check out global 2012 temperature trends from NASA below.
“Some of us are awake. Some of us are asleep. It is that simple. Those of us trying to educate our fellow citizens about global climate change are no one special. We are just people who see and cannot look away. We understand. We know the truth. And we love our children or feel a moral obligation to others beyond ourselves. We’ve studied the science and have grasped the obvious. We cannot rest even though deep down we fear it might not matter in the end. We have to do this. We must. We have no choice.” – Doug Craig, in a recent article that resonated at “Climate of Change” below.
Canadian Surge. The 84-hour NAM model shows the first significant shot of the winter season pushing a band of showers and T-storms across the Upper Midwest Monday – reaching New England and much of the east coast by Tuesday. Patchy frost is possible by midweek across the Great Lakes. An even colder shot arrives by the end of the week. Model data: NOAA.
News of a “Temperature Correction” on the way:
Frosty Possibilities. It seems hard to comprehend, with temperatures forecast to top 80 again today, but there is a very good chance of a frost for much of the metro by early next week, coming roughly 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. Here’s more information from Planalytics:
“Starting on Tuesday, consumers east of the Rockies will be reaching for a fleece jacket during the day and an extra blanket overnight. While some areas enjoyed cooler overnight conditions this week, next Tuesday and Wednesday (September 18th & 19th) is expected to bring a 25 to 30°F decrease for both day time and overnight temperatures compared to recent weeks across the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes. Frost is likely across these regions, including the major population areas of Minneapolis, Green Bay, Madison, and Milwaukee.”
2012: Global Warming. I run into a fair number of people who tell me “Paul, yes, the USA had a very hot summer. So what? The rest of the world has been unusually chilly so it all cancels out.” Really? The global data set doesn’t support that statement. NASA data (above) shows global temperatures anomalies since December, 2011. The upper left graphic shows December – February temperature trends, showing intense warming over North America and far northern latitudes, but a cool bias for portions of Asia. Spring anomalies (upper right) show a fairly uniform warming over most of the planet, the same with summer anomalies (bottom map) – average summer temperatures 3-5 F. warmer than the long-term average for Canada, North Africa and a big chunk of Asia. The data is the data, and the maps above reflect trends seen not just since December of 2011, but since the mid-80s.
Summer Of 2012: Just Hot Or Did We Do It? WJLA-TV meteorologist Bob Ryan does a good job of sorting out the (global) trends from land-use issues and “normal” variations in temperature in this important post; here’s an excerpt: “…The long term trend is clear, but the year to year variability is also clear. I deal with probabilities so I’ll go out on a limb and say I think it is unlikely next summer in Washington will be our 4th really hot summer in a row. Then to answer the question in my title. Did “we” make the past summer as hot as it was? I think the answer is no . . . but we sure helped make it hotter than average and our footprints of a warmer world, probably a warmer DC area in the coming decades are clearer and clearer all the time. Some of my colleagues don’t agree. I look forward to their blogs on climate and if there is a human “footprint” on our environment, climate and weather patterns.”
Hottest Spot on Earth? USA, Not Libya. Here’s an excerpt of a post from the WMO, the World Meteorological Organization: “A World Meteorological Organization panel has concluded that the all-time heat record held for exactly 90 years by El Azizia in Libya is invalid because of an error in recording the temperature. The announcement follows a danger-fraught investigation during the 2011 Libyan revolution. Death Valley National Park in California, USA, now officially holds the title of the world’s hottest place – as symbolic for meteorologists as Mt. Everest is for geographers….Consequently, the WMO assessment is that the official highest recorded surface temperature of 56.7°C (134°F) was measured on 10 July 1913 at Greenland Ranch (Death Valley), California, USA. Full details of the assessment are given in the on-line issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00093.1)“
Bird Migration Forecasts Early Winter. Maybe the birds know something we don’t…? Here’s an excerpt from sfgate.com: “There’s a saying, “Birds never lie.” If so, the best weather forecaster in the West, the migratory sandhill crane, is predicting an early winter with plenty of rain and snow. Over the years, the timing of the migration of sandhill cranes south to the San Joaquin Valley has predicted winter weather, both wet and dry. Early migrations have meant big winters. Late migrations, the opposite. “I think 2012 sets a record for earliest arrival,” said Gary Ivey, the International Crane Foundation’s Western Conversation Manager. This fall’s verified migration started August 25 when 10 sandhill cranes were sighted in northern San Joaquin County by a birdwatching group guided by Esther Milnes-Schmierer, a docent for the Department of Fish and Game. In past years, the giant sandhill cranes have first arrived in mid-September.”
September Crop Update. Dr. Mark Seeley includes an interesting update on crop conditions in this week’s Minnesota WeatherTalk: “A national drought perspective was provided this week by Brad Rippey of the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, highlighting the major features of the USA drought. Excerpts include:
Crops and cattle in drought have begun to rise again. Overall, drought has shifted toward the north and west in recent weeks.
- U.S. corn in drought stands at 84%, up a percentage point from a week ago. The corn harvest is underway, 15% complete nationally by September 9.
- Soybeans in drought also rose a point – to 81%. The soybean harvest is underway in a few areas, 4% complete nationally by September 9.
- Hay in drought rose 3 points to 66%, tying the high set on July 17 and 24.
- Cattle in drought reached a new high, rising 2 points to 74%.
- Winter wheat in drought is added this week, as planting is underway (4% complete). Nearly three-quarters (74%) of the winter wheat area is in drought.
- Due to expansion of drought in the nation’s mid-section, contiguous U.S. drought coverage reached a record-high 64.16% on September 11. The former record of 63.86% had been set on July 24.”
Spreading Drought. According to NOAA’s Drought Monitor, St. Cloud, Willmar and the entire north metro is in a moderate drought (again). In fact 44.39% of Minnesota is in a moderate drought, up from 39% last week. Severe drought is impacting the Red River Valley, pockets of extreme drought from Pipestone to Jackson and Worthington.
Drought of 2012: Status Quo. Not much change in the U.S. Drought Monitor – the driest conditions from the Midwest into the Central and Southern Plains, a pocket of extreme/exceptional drought over eastern Alabama and Georgia.
Blocking Patterns: How Global Warming May Have Worsened U.S. Drought. Extreme warming over the Arctic is affecting the jet stream patterns, with a greater tendency toward “blocks”, holding patterns aloft that can make heat, drought (and flooding) worse. The Christian Science Monitor explains; here’s an excerpt: “As the summer of 2012 winds down, with drought and searing temperatures its hallmark for much of the continental United States, researchers are trying to get a better handle on the factors that contribute to the persistence of weather patterns responsible for the extremes. The immediate culprit: patterns of atmospheric flow that steer storms along a given path for weeks, heating and depriving some areas of needed rain while drenching others. Such blocking patterns are a global phenomena, a normal component of Earth’s weather systems. But some researchers suggest that global warming’s influence on the Arctic and on the tropics can change circulation patterns in ways that keep blocking patterns in place longer than they otherwise might.”
Photo credit above: “Drought-damaged corn is seen in a field near Nickerson, Neb., on Aug. 16.” Nati Harnik/AP/File
Fall Color Slightly Ahead of Schedule? According to the Minnesota DNR 25-50% of trees in Hennepin, Ramsey and Dakota county are already ripening up, about 7-10 days ahead of schedule. Dry weather may be accelerating color, as trees across much of the metro are under stress.
World Weather – Climate Extremes Archive. Here’s a great bit of trivia for your next party. “Did you know the world record for rainfall in a 60 minute period is 12″ at Holt, Missouri?” Crickets. O.K. Maybe you don’t want to publicize this (geeky) information, but other weather enthusiasts may find this interesting. Arizona State University has an interactive global map that shows world records.
Speaking Of Super-Typhoons. I didn’t realize this, but the world record for surface wind gusts is 253 mph, set in 1996 at Barrow Island, Australia. Seems like that should have been a “Category 6″. Source: Arizona State University and WMO.
Typhoon “Sanba” Expected To hit Okinawa, South Korea. Huffington Post has details on one of the most powerful typhoons witnessed in the western Pacific in recent years: “On Friday, Sanba was a super typhoon with winds up to 155 mph. Sanba’s cone of landfall has cut a path through Japan’s Okinawa and the Asian mainland, NPR reports. The outlet cited military personnel website Stars and Stripes’ Dave Ornaeur, who said:
“The bad news: I have never, in all my years of following tropical cyclones, seen a storm this intense here in the Pacific. Super Typhoon Sanba is peaking in intensity at 155 knots, or 178.25 mph, today along with gusts near 220 mph (!!!) – a Category 5-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – and will remain close to that for next day or so.”
High-resolution satellite image above courtesy of Digital-Typhoon.
Sanba’s Projected Track. Okinawa may see a direct strike, the soggy remnants of “Sanba” forecast to swirl north toward South Korea, possibly reaching Seoul as a Category 1-2 strength hurricane. Track information courtesy of the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Getting The Drop On Storms. Hurricane Hunter aircraft drop highly-sensitive weather instruments into hurricanes; these “dropsondes” send back a real-time stream of information that bolsters the high-resolution computer models hurricane forecasters rely on to get a handle on these massive, Texas-size storms. Here’s a great explanation of how these instruments work in a post at NCAR’s AtmosNews: “Whenever NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns millions of coastal residents about a potential storm, one of the tools backing up the decision is a small and highly sophisticated instrument package developed at NCAR. Dozens of these packages, known as dropsondes, are released at high altitudes by “hurricane hunter” aircraft to transmit data on temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind while descending by parachute through tropical storms and hurricanes. Equipped with GPS technology to pinpoint atmospheric conditions by location, the dropsondes have led to an average 10–20% improvement in track forecasts for the critical 48-hour window in which hurricane watches and warnings are issued, according to the NHC. Those warnings are estimated to save an average of about 200 lives yearly.”
The Evolution Of Wildfires Around The World. Here’s a link to an amazing animation, courtesy of The New York Time’s Andy Revkin and The Washington Post: “Andrew Revkin of Dot Earth passes along this fascinating video from the NASA Earth Observatory showing the “global pulse of fire” around the world since 2000. NASA offers this bit of commentary: The fire maps show the locations of actively burning fires around the world on a monthly basis, based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. The colors are based on a count of the number (not size) of fires observed within a 1,000-square-kilometer area. White pixels show the high end of the count —as many as 100 fires in a 1,000-square-kilometer area per day. Yellow pixels show as many as 10 fires, orange shows as many as 5 fires, and red areas as few as 1 fire per day.”
Top 10 Tornadoes Caught On Surveillance Camera. This is interesting – now that we have so many webcams recording video around the USA, every now and then they catch the arrival of a full-blown tornado. Some incredible footage in this post from ustornadoes.com: “I chose these videos — what I consider to be the top 10 tornadoes caught on security cam — to show the versatility of surveillance solutions. Granted, the cameras that caught the tornadoes presented here had a different goal when initially installed. But as you can see below, these cameras can often go beyond their intended purpose. And sometimes, with a little luck, you can get a glimpse at something that otherwise might have gone unseen.”
“After You”. I mean, what were these guys thinking?
iPhone 5: Everything You Need To Know. Did you hear, Apple just came out with a new smartphone? Gizmodo.com does a nice job of summarizing the iPhone 5; here’s an excerpt: “The new iPhone 5 is here. It’s thinner and faster than ever, with a new form factor that uses a gorgeous panoramic screen with more resolutions and less consumption. It also surfs the web much faster, thanks to its new LTE capabilities. And, just as we knew, it has a new smaller dock connector called Lightning. Overall, it seems they have incrementally improved every single aspect of the iPhone. It’s not a revolutionary phone, but it is a very nice release.”
“Fair, Balanced, And Not Especially Good at Geography.” Hey, cut us a break, it was spot news and there was a new guy on Chyron who got a little confused. It’s those crazy southern states anyway. Who cares where Missouri, Alabama and Mississippi are on a silly map anyway. We got Texas right!
Dog Stands Guard Over Deceased Owner’s Grave For Six Years. A remarkable (and amazingly sad) story from Yahoo News; here’s an excerpt: “An extremely dedicated dog has continued to show its loyalty, keeping watch on its owner’s grave six years after he passed away. Capitan, a German shepherd, reportedly ran away from home after its owner, Miguel Guzman, died in 2006. A week later, the Guzman family found the dog sitting by his grave in central Argentina. Miguel Guzman adopted Capitan in 2005 as a gift for his teenage son, Damian. And for the past six years, Capitan has continued to stand guard at Miguel’s grave. The family says the dog rarely leaves the site.”
Working Up A Minor Sweat On September 15. 85 F. on September 15? Pretty impressive, considering the sun was as high in the southern sky Saturday as it was on March 27. Under a mostly-blue sky highs ranged from 82 at Eau Claire to 85 St. Cloud and Twin Cities, 87 Redwood Falls, 90 reported at Morris and Olivia.
On This Date in Weather History (courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service):
2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, killing a 10 year old girl.
1992: New Market received nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapsed from floodwater in northern Le Sueur County.
1955: An F1 tornado touched down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.
Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
* the timing is tricky, but I suspect much of the metro will experience the first frost of the season by early next week, roughly 7-8 days from now.
In the Future Living In U.S. Will Be More Neighborly. I hope this extended outlook proves prescient; details from The Detroit Free Press; here’s an excerpt: “In the next American metropolis, people will live in smaller homes, relax in smaller yards, park their smaller cars in smaller spots. They will be closer to work, to play and, above all, to one another. Global warming will be a fait accompli in 30 years, and so these urban Americans will raise their own food, in fields and on rooftops, and build structures to withstand everything from hurricane winds to Formosan termites. They will walk and ride more and drive less. And they will like it. This is the future envisioned by Andres Duany, architect, town planner, teacher and polemicist. And the future, he will tell you, is his business.”
Saving The Ozone Layer: Lessons For Fighting Climate Change. Here’s an excerpt of an article from NRDC and Huffington Post: “….Now that CFCs have been eliminated through the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer has started to repair itself and to restore its capacity to shield us from disease. Just phasing out the U.S. portion of CFCs will prevent nearly 300 million cases of non-melanoma skin cancer in America and many more worldwide by the year 2165. The effort to restore the ozone layer is a resounding public health and environmental success — one in which I am proud to say NRDC played a central role. It is a testament to the human community’s ability to solve global problems. And it is proof we can do it faster and cheaper than originally thought. Now it is time to apply the lessons learned in the ozone achievement to the fight against another planetary crisis: climate change.”
Fossil Fuel Industry Ads Dominate TV Campaign. Have you noticed any commercials for “clean coal” in recent weeks? Me too. Details on the geyser of fossil-fuel money involved in this year’s presidential campaign from The New York Times; here’s an excerpt: “When Barack Obama first ran for president, being green was so popular that oil companies like Chevron were boasting about their commitment to renewable energy, and his Republican opponent, John McCain, supported action on global warming. As Mr. Obama seeks re-election, that world is a distant memory. Some of the mightiest players in the oil, gas and coal industries are financing an aggressive effort to defeat him, or at least press him to adopt policies that are friendlier to fossil fuels. And the president’s former allies in promoting wind and solar power and caps on greenhouse gases? They are disenchanted and sitting on their wallets.”
Forecast The Core Facts On Climate Change. Doug Craig has had enough, and he’s not mincing words in his latest “Climate of Change” post at redding.com. I’m not sure name-calling is the answer, although I’m amused when people call me a “warmist” or “alarmist”. The trends are in fact, alarming. Just calling it like it is. Here’s an excerpt from the post: “Calling the deniers by the name deniers is too kind. A better name would be saboteurs. A saboteur is someone who engages in sabotage. “Sabotage is a deliberate action aimed at weakening another entity through subversion, obstruction, disruption, or destruction.” The saboteurs have one aim. Delay. They pretend to participate in this process in good faith but they cannot be trusted. Nothing they say can be believed. They offer us nothing. They come in the name of science but they deliberately deceive. They are the enemies of the Earth, our children, their own children, future generations, the poor and non-human life. They are essentially a destructive or negative force in the world. Some of them do this consciously. They know the truth and deliberately choose to lie. Others are simply misinformed, easily misled or closed to new information that conflicts with their core beliefs and values….”
House Republicans Scrub Climate Change Concerns From EPA Bill. Remarkable. Let’s just ignore the elephant in the living room. Details from The Hill: “The latest House bill aimed at thwarting climate change regulations drops previous language that acknowledged scientific concerns about global warming and evidence of rising temperatures and sea levels. The House is slated to vote next week on several bills aimed at battling what Republicans call a White House “war” on coal — a package that includes previously passed legislation to block greenhouse gas rules from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). But the new version of the greenhouse gas bill from House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) omits a “sense of Congress” section that describes scientific concerns about climate change while casting it as an international issue.”
Climate Chronicles: Climate Change Becomes A Business Reality. The story from Bloomberg Businessweek; here’s an excerpt : “This is the year climate change should have hit home. The first eight months are the hottest on record in the U.S., and Arctic sea ice is about to hit a record low. Extreme weather, as we’ve come to call it, has affected everything from the juiciness of the steak at Peter Luger (high corn prices mean steer are being killed before there’s sufficient fat in the marbled meat) to crime rates, as some blame the recent heist of $30 million of maple syrup in Quebec to a one-third drop in U.S. production. No wonder the Carbon Disclosure Project has seen a sharp spike in the number of large companies that view global warming as an immediate threat to their operations. The percentage that see danger right now has jumped to 37 percent of respondents in this year’s CDP Global 500 Climate Change Report, released on Sept. 12, up from 10 percent just two years ago.”
Photo credit: Charlie Riedel/AP Photo. “Time exposure of smokestacks at the La Cygne Generating Station coal-fired power plant in Kansas.”
NRDC Report: Typical Wind Farm Supports Nearly 1,100 Jobs, Adds Millions Of Dollars To Local Economies. Here’s an excerpt from a recent press release from the Natural Resources Defense Council: “Each major wind farm in America creates nearly 1,100 jobs and can add tens of millions of dollars in new taxes and other benefits to the communities where they’re located, according to two new reports from the Natural Resources Defense Council. A new 250-megawatt wind farm will create 1,079 jobs throughout the many steps of building that wind farm, according to the NRDC report “American Wind Farms: Breaking Down the Benefits from Planning to Production.” These are positions in manufacturing, construction engineering and management, among other areas. But the benefits don’t end there, a separate NRDC study on the secondary impacts of the wind energy industry shows.”
Climate Change Will Extend Hay Fever Season By Six Weeks. Oh that’s just great. I’m liking the milder trends to some extent, but 6 more weeks of sneezing, wheezing and sniffling? Details from The Guardian and Mother Jones: “Hay fever sufferers face longer pollen seasons and highly allergenic new strains from invasive plants, a new report on the health effects of climate change on the UK warned on Tuesday. Global warming will cause earlier flowering, possibly extending the hay fever season by six weeks, and enable new species to grow in the UK. Pollen is also getting more potent, packing more allergen into each grain. The report, from the Health Protection Agency (HPA), analyses a wide range of risks including killer heatwaves, increased flooding, greater food poisoning and new infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes.”
Hot Graphics – Global Warming In Images. Here’s a snippet of a post that summarizes the global trends we’re witnessing in recent decades with excellent visuals and animations; from getenergysmartnow.org: “..This NASA graphic impressively provides 131 years of temperature data in 26 seconds. “The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000. … The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F (0.51 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.”
Extreme Weather & Climate Events: 2012. Here is a remarkable timeline summary of 2012: the warmest, and probably the most severe year in U.S. history, but an unusual number of extremes were witnessed worldwide. Check it out for yourself at tiki-toki.com.
Heat: A Bridge To Climate Consensus? Huffington Post has the story; here’s an excerpt: “Excessive heat is becoming a public health threat, especially in cities. It leads to heat stroke, heat exhaustion, and is a catalyst for ground-level ozone creation as well as asthma and lung disease. However, and perhaps even more importantly, heat may be the bridge to climate consensus. While extreme heat is not climate change in itself, it amplifies the heat impacts of climate change — thus also amplifying the threats to human health. It therefore provides an opportunity that allows climate believers, agnostics, and deniers to work together to address a common threat to our society. Regardless of the motivations, dealing with extreme heat can help mitigate climate change, providing added benefits to society.”
Arctic Warning: As The System Changes, We Must Adjust Our Science. Here’s an excerpt from Climate Code Red: “The Arctic sea-ice big melt of 2012 “has taken us by surprise and we must adjust our understanding of the system and we must adjust our science and we must adjust our feelings for the nature around us”, according to Kim Holmen, Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) international director. From Svalbard (halfway between mainland Norway and Greenland), the BBC’s David Shukman reported on 7 September that Holmen had described the current melt rate “a greater change than we could even imagine 20 years ago, even 10 years ago”.
Photo credit above: “Northern Polar Institute Research Director Kim Holmen, left, with UN Foundation Board Chairman Ted Turner and President Timothy Wirth in the Arctic.”
Faking That NASA Faked The Moon Landing. More on conspiracy theories and a possible link to ongoing climate change denial from shapingtomorrowsworld.org: “Data integrity is a central issue in all research, and internet-based data collection poses a unique set of challenges. Much attention has been devoted to that issue and procedures have been developed to safeguard against abuse. There have been numerous demonstrations that internet platforms offers a reliable and replicable means of data collection, and the practice is now widely accepted. Nonetheless, each data set must be examined for outliers and “unusual” responses, and our recent paper on conspiracist ideation and the motivated rejection of science is no exception. Perhaps unsurprisingly, after various unfounded accusations against us have collapsed into smithereens, critics of our work have now set their sights on the data. It has been alleged that the responses to our survey were somehow “scammed,” thereby compromising our conclusions.”
Permafrost Thaw Will Speed Up Global Warming, Study Says. CBC News has the story; here’s an excerpt: “Permafrost soils in Canada’s Arctic are melting at a rate that will significantly speed up global warming, according to new research from the University of Victoria. The study, published this week in Nature Geoscience, predicts that the thawing permafrost will release between 68 billion and 508 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere by the year 2100. As a result of those carbon emissions, researchers say the Earth’s temperature will rise by more than 0.5 C by the end of the century.” Image above: NASA.