93 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
78 F. average high on June 11.
67 F. high on June 11, 2015.
June 12, 1917: The ice pack finally breaks up on Lake Superior near Duluth, one of the latest ever ‘ice out’ dates on record.
More Red Blobs on Doppler: Soggy into Thursday
“Live life for the moment, because everything else is uncertain” wrote Louis Tomlinson. I don’t want to sleepwalk through the rest of my life.
One of these days I’ll enjoy a sunset, without feeling the need to photograph it.
One of these days I’ll stop checking e-mail in a fishing boat.
One of these days I’ll forget to pack my laptop and smartphone before leaving on a trip.
The extended outlook calls for a radical digital-disconnect.
Our ration of quiet sunshine is history now; the approach of a sloppy frontal boundary sparks showers and T-storms today. A few storms may become severe over central and western Minnesota. More pulsating red blobs on Doppler.
Friday’s swamp-like heat lurks just to our south this week; a wave of showers and storms bubbling up along the northern edge of this sloppy boundary results in significant rain Tuesday and Wednesday, over an inch possible.
I think I have the timing down: weekday puddles should give way to sunny 80s next weekend; even a shot at 90F a week from today.
Maybe I’ll ignore all my technological distractions.
One of these days.
Slight Severe Thunderstorm Risk. As dew points rise and wind shear aloft increases conditions may be favorable for a few severe storms later today, especially western and central Minnesota by late afternoon. According to NOAA SPC the primary risk is damaging wind gusts.
Isolated 1-2″ Rains. NOAA’s 4 km NAM prints out a band of 1-2″ across central Minnesota. That may be the exception, not the rule. Summertime convection is always fickle: one-inch downpours for one town, while a few miles down the road the sun is out and people are wondering what all the fuss is about. 60 hour accumulated rainfall: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Soggy into Midweek. One jolt of rain comes today from showers and T-storms. Steadier, heavier rain is possible late Tuesday into Thursday morning when some 1″+ rainfall amounts are possible as a slow-moving storm tracks across the state. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
Midweek Cooling – Warming Up Again Next Weekend. ECMWF guidance (above) shows a break from the heat by midweek, but a southerly wind kicks in again by the end of the week as 80s return. Graphic: WeatherBell.
Late-June Warming Trend. If the forecast for 500 mb winds (GFS) actually verifies 2 weeks from now daytime highs will consistently be in the 80s with a few 90s possible as a hot ridge of high pressure sets up over the central USA.
From Frost to Heat Advisories in Less Than One Week. Dr. Mark Seeley has details on the frost event that took place just 3-4 days ago up north in this week’s edition of Minnesota WeatherTalk; here’s a clip: “June 7 and 8 brought cold morning temperatures to many parts of the state, especially northeastern counties. Many climate observers reported morning lows in the 30s F, and several reported frost. A number of climate stations also reported new record daily low temperatures. These included:
June 7th 37F at Kabetogama and Littlefork
June 8th: 28F at Crane Lake; 29F at Hibbing and Orr; 30F at International Falls and Babbitt; and 37F at Sandstone.
Actually frosts this time of year are not all that unusual in northern Minnesota counties, with a 10 to 20 percent historical frequency during the 2nd week of June…”
Warmest June Temperature on Record for Greenland. Details via The Capital Weather Gang.
Heat Soars to Record Levels Across West, Heads East. Here are a few interesting weather nuggets in a story at WXshift: “…Several spots in the West set new high temperature records last week. Phoenix is normally hot this time of year, with a normal high of 102°F (39°C), but there were four consecutive days (June 3-6) when the high was more than 110°F (43°C). Each of those four days brought a new record high, with the temperature peaking at 115°F (46°C) on June 4. Even traditionally cooler spots of the Pacific Northwest have been especially hot. According to the National Weather Service in Seattle, the average temperature for the first week in June this year has been the second hottest since the 1890s. Similarly, the high of 84°F (29°C) on June 7 marked the 14th day that was 80°F (26.7°C) or warmer this year. The record for the most days at or above 80°F by the end of June is 15, which was set just last year...”
Image credit: NOAA.
I think we can start to connect these dots and say that increasing loss of Arctic sea ice is leading to more blocking patterns, which are contributing to the increasing surface melt on Greenland,” said Jennifer Francis, the Rutgers University Arctic expert whose ideas about Arctic melting distorting the jet stream have ignited one of the biggest ongoing debates in climate science, and who is familiar with the new study by Tedesco and his colleagues. “Of course, this is bad news for sea-level rise and maybe also for the ocean circulation as the extra meltwater appears to be partially responsible for the ‘Cool Blob’ south of Iceland...”
* The new paper referenced in the previous story is here.
Study: Light Pollution Blocks Milky Way for Nearly 80% of Americans. USA TODAY reports: “Light pollution now blocks the Milky Way galaxy in the night sky for nearly 80% of Americans and more than one-third of the world, according to a study and global atlas released Friday. Overall, more than 99% of Americans live under light-polluted skies, and some spots in the USA may never again experience a true night thanks to the perpetual, artificial light. The phenomenon isn’t new: Lighting of homes, streets, highways and bustling cities across the nation grew dramatically after World War II, said Chris Elvidge, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Information…”
Image credit: “A light pollution map of North America shows that nearly the entire eastern U.S. is artificially brightened at night.” (Photo: Fabio Falchi)
Air Pollution Now Major Contributor to Stroke, Global Study Finds. Here’s a summary of new findings reported at The Guardian: “Air pollution has become a major contributor to stroke for the first time, with unclean air now blamed for nearly one third of the years of healthy life lost to the condition worldwide. In an unprecedented survey of global risk factors for stroke, air pollution in the form of fine particulate matter ranked seventh in terms of its impact on healthy lifespan, while household air pollution from burning solid fuels ranked eighth...”
The World’s Population is Very Slowly Backing Away from the Dangerous Coasts. Although growth and development continues to accelerate, new research suggests the growth in population is slowly spreading away from the coasts, as highlighted at Co.Exist: “…As of 2010, they found that about 1.9 billion people, or 27% of the world’s population, lived on the 9% of the planet’s land that is near the coast (defined as less than 100 kilometers from the shore at lower than 100 meters elevation). Seventeen out of 30 of the world’s largest cities are in this area, too. These population estimates come out slightly higher than previous research done in the 1990s, so the authors believe there is even more human pressure on coastal areas than we realize…” (Photo credit: May S. Young, Flickr).
TODAY: Sticky, few showers and T-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 82
SUNDAY NIGHT: Muggy with showers and storms, locally heavy rain. Low: 67
MONDAY: Clouds and showers linger. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 81
TUESDAY: More showers and T-storms move in. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Showers and storms slowly taper. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High: 72
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 75
FRIDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 82
SATURDAY: Sticky sun, feels like summer again! Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 85
Dear Conservatives, You Can Go Green Again. If conservatives don’t conserve – across the board – a major rebranding effort will soon be required. Here’s an excerpt from The New York Times: “…Conservatives may complain about oil companies being shut out of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but most of the credit for protecting that habitat belongs to Dwight D. Eisenhower, who also signed the nation’s first air pollution control law. Richard M. Nixon, not otherwise a candidate for sainthood, changed the way the nation lives, breathes and does business, establishing the Environmental Protection Agency and enacting the Clean Air Act and the Endangered Species Act, among other major environmental initiatives. George H. W. Bush, finally, began to take conservation in a new market-based direction, pushing through a cap-and-trade system in 1990 that enabled industry to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, which causes acid rain, far more quickly and cheaply than anyone imagined possible…”
Photo credit: “ Credit Associated Press.
This Might Get the World to Finally Pay Attention to Climate Change. Gizmodo has the eye-opening report; here’s an excerpt: “Six British warships stationed in the Persian Gulf are breaking down because the water is too hot. This week, members of the British Navy testified to the UK’s Defence Committee that their Type 45 destroyers keep losing power because of high ocean temperatures. When the ships’ turbines get overheated, they can’t generate as much energy, resulting in electrical failures. The makers of the billion-dollar warships, including Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems Maritime, claim that the ships were not designed to be used in that kind of environment for an extended amount of time, although they are supposedly engineered for a wide range of temperatures from sub-Arctic to tropic...”
Paris Floods Were “Directly” Tied to Global Warming, Study Finds. Another atmospheric fluke? Probably not, as the weather-dice are increasingly loaded for freakish flood events. Here’s an excerpt of an Andrew Freedman analysis at Mashable: “The water is still receding along the Seine and Loire Rivers in France, with cleanup beginning in parts of Bavaria, but scientists are already out with a study showing that global warming made the floods at the end of May and early June far more likely compared to a climate that had not warmed due to greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis, which is known as an extreme event “attribution study,” found that the probability of three-day precipitation extremes in April through June increased by at least 40% in France overall due to climate change, with about an 80% increase in likelihood along the Seine River Basin and close to a 90% increase in the Loire River Basin…”
Photo credit: “A boy fishes in the Seine river during floods, in Paris, Sunday, June 5, 2016.” Image: Thibault Camus/AP.
Historic May Rainfall Event Across Europe. Here is an excerpt of the report from Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution unit: “...Overall, the probability of 3-day extreme rainfall in this season has increased by at least 40 percent in France, with the best estimate of about 80 percent on the Seine and about 90 percent on the Loire. All four climate model ensembles that simulated the statistical properties of the extremes are in good overall agreement. Results for Germany were inconclusive. Based on these different approaches — all of which are in agreement — the team found that global warming increased the likelihood of the heavy rains associated with the May 29 – 31 event in both the Seine and the Loire River basins. Return Times: We find that the 3-day precipitation in the Seine basin was very rare in April–June, with a return time of roughly one in hundreds of years. The event was less rare on the Loire, with a return time of roughly 1 in every 50 years...”
Map credit: “Map of mean rainfall (in mm) for the 3-day period from May 29 – 31, 2016 over France. b) Map shows 1-day maximum precipitation total (in mm) from Jan. to June 5th, 2016 over Germany.” Source: NOAA/NCEP/CPC.
* More perspective on severe weather attribution in a warming atmosphere from The New York Times.