Conservation Minnesota

More Storms Wednesday – Heavy Rainfall and Unsettled Through The Weekend

Tuesday Afternoon Storms
A few storms rapidly developed on Tuesday afternoon west of the Twin Cities. Here was a picture taken from Hanover, MN as the cumulonimbus was obscuring the sun.

Radar From Tuesday Afternoon
The spotty thunderstorms that developed PM Tuesday were pretty slow movers, but a few of them were fairly intense. There were a hail reports of 1″ in diameter south of Willmar.

Hail Reports
Here were the hail reports from PM Tuesday as the spotty storms developing in western MN.

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Severe Weather Concerns Continue
Unsettled weather looks to continue over the next several days with some of the storms close to home on the strong to possibly even severe side. According to NOAA’s SPC, there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather across southwestern MN and a MARGINAL THREAT across most of the rest of the state. It appears that by Thursday, the best potential for strong to severe storms will be found across Southern MN into Iowa and Wisconsin as MARGINAL and SLIGHT risk areas continue there.

Severe Weather Potential Wednesday

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
RAPIDLY PROGRESS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN...IA...AND WRN WI DURING THE
DAY. THE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AS INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED VIA ADVECTION. THE VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
WITH ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE DAKOTAS...NEB AND
SWRN MN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM CNTRL SD INTO NEB...SPREADING NEWD WITH A THREAT OF HAIL
AND WIND. THE COLD PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday

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Simulated Radar
The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to PM Thursday shows unsettled weather returning Wednesday as our next wave of energy rotates through the region. It appears that an area of showers and storms move through central MN during the first part of the day with additional thunderstorms developing during the second half of the day. While a few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out across the state on Wednesday, it appears the best chance of more vigorous storms will be found southwest of the Twin Cities.

Rainfall Potential
Rainfall potential through 7pm Thursday still looks fairly impressive across the state with widespread 0.50″ to near 0.75″ amounts. There could also be a few areas that get more than 1″ through that time period.

Longer Range Precipitation Outlook
Longer range models are still indicating heavy rainfall potential through Memorial Day Monday. Several shots of showers and storms could bring widespread 1″ to near 2″+ rainfall to the area. However, thunderstorms are unique in a sense that some could see very heavy rainfall, while only a few miles down the road, rainfall amounts could be minimal to none. The image below is the GFS solution through 7pm Monday, which is suggesting some 1″ to near 3″ amounts in spots.


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Situational Awareness for Outdoor Summer Events
By Paul Douglas

During Monday’s soggy Twins game a guy leaned over and showed me Doppler on his smartphone. “Yep, red blobs are cause for concern.” The much-advertised chaos at the Beyonce concert left some people indignant, but here’s the thing: you don’t want to rely on anyone else for your personal safety, especially in large crowds.

When I’m at a stadium I keep tabs on how close I am to the nearest exit. If a warning is issued, or lightning is showing up nearby, I don’t want to be in the stands, but an interior concession area, preferably surrounded by concrete and reinforced steel. With weather apps you can go on offense, take evasive action BEFORE storms strike. Less running and screaming.

More showers & heavy T-storms rumble into Minnesota Wednesday; the drive home another slow-motion slog. After a brief break from puddles Thursday the next stormy swirl pushes more storms into town late Friday into Saturday; another 1-2 inches of rain may trigger minor flooding.

The sun breaks through Sunday, with low 80s on Monday (and a nagging late-day thunder risk).
Far from ideal, but we’ll get by.
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Weather Outlook

TUESDAY NIGHT:: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing t-storm. Low: 62. Winds: E 5mph.

WEDNESDAY: Thundery downpours possible. High: 81. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Spotty storms possible. Low: 63. Winds: S 5mph

THURSDAY: Damp start, then some sticky sun. High: 81. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

 FRIDAY: More T-storms with locally heavy rain. Wake-up: 64. High: 77. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Wettest day, numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 64. High: 76. Wind: S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: A bit drier with sunny breaks. Wake-up: 62. High: 81. Wind: SW 8-13 mph.

 MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Some sun. Watch for late day storms. Wake-up: 65. High: 82. Wind: S 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: What a sock: more t-storms. Sticky. Wake-up: 64. High: 79. Winds: SE 8-13mph.
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This Day in Weather History
May 25th

2008: An EF-3 tornado strikes Hugo, MN. 1 fatality and 9 injuries are reported.

See more from the NWS HERE:


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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 25th

Average High: 72F (Record: 94F set in 1978)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 33F set in 1901)
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Sunrise/Sunset for Minneapolis
May 25th

Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:46pm

*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~1min & 47secs
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice: ~6hrs & 25mins
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Moon Phase for May 25th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before Last Quarter

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Wednesday Outlook
There’s good news for folks that have been enjoying the warmer weather as of late… there’s more to come! Wednesday’s temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures once again with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the state. However, it may feel a little cooler at times with the sun being obscured by clouds.

Wednesday Outlook
Weather conditions on Wednesday look fairly unsettled with a few scattered showers and storms possible during the first part of the days and once again in the afternoon. Here’s the weather outlook around midday, which not only shows shower and spotty storm chances, but it also shows fairly widespread cloud coverage as well.

Wednesday Outlook
As our next impulse of energy slides through the Upper Midwest, wind speeds look to increase through the afternoon. While Wednesday won’t be technically ‘windy’, it will be a little more breezy that Tuesday was with some spots seeing wind gusts to near 20mph across the western part of the state.


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Extended Outlook
A little more than 1 week ago we were talking about significantly colder than average temperatures and areas of patchy frost and freeze. The extended outlook through the first few days of June doesn’t suggest anything like that! In fact, it appears that through the end of the month into early June, a string of 80s may be developing! Seems as if we may be settling right into summer weather as the first day of Meteorological Summer approaches June 1st.

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Even NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is on board with warmer than average temperatures from May 29th to June 2nd! Again, if you’re enjoying the warmer than average temperatures as of late, it looks promising for you through the early part of June!

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National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through PM Thursday suggests continued unsettled weather across the midsection of the nation with widespread showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe weather heavy rainfall and flooding.
Severe Threat Wednesday
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH UPPER LOWS
OVER ND AND AZ. THE NRN SYSTEM WILL BE COMPRISED OF AN EARLY
DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. BY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEB AND SD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
ERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING ALOFT...INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER PROFILES AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE S...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
MID MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND
SLY SFC WINDS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK
AND INTO W CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE
STORMS THERE AS WELL.

HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER SWRN TX AS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
NM...AND MAY SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS IN TX.
Severe Threat Thursday
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
Heavy Rainfall Potential
While the 240hr rainfall forecast from the GFS is a little excessive in terms of length of forecast, it does show the potential of heavy rainfall across the Central U.S. through the end of the month. Note the brighter blobs (heavier rain) over the Midwest and across the Southern Plains. These are areas that could experience flooding in any significant convective rainfall events through that time period. Also note the heavier blob of moisture developing off the southeast coast of the U.S.. There are some indications of an interesting area of low pressure developing over the open waters of the Atlantic before moving toward the Carolinas this weekend. Will this system have tropical characteristics? We’ll see…
National Hurricane Center Outlook
Interestingly, the National Hurricane Center has issued a statement on this particular area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic… While the deem it to have a 0% of formation over the next 48 hours, it has a 30% of formation over the next 5 days!
 
1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean
near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.
While development is not expected for the next couple of days,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of
disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United
States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Coastal Storm Developing?
This is the forecast for AM Saturday as the aforementioned area of low pressure develops further and slides north toward the Carolinas… Stay tuned as this system develops.

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“Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be More Active Than Normal”
Here’s a story from Reuters regarding the potential of a more active Atlantic Hurricane Season this year due to a developing La Nina…
 
One of the most important factors playing into this season is the imminent presence of La Niña, the cold phase of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña tends to decrease the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is one enabling ingredient in hurricane formation. Therefore, it is not surprising that some of the more active hurricane seasons over the past several decades were often associated with La Niña. Seasons with below-normal hurricane activity have coincided with La Niña in the past, but this has not occurred since 1978. But this year, both La Niña and warm oceans side with the hurricanes. Global ocean temperatures have been breaking new record highs over the past several months, meaning that together with reduced wind shear via La Niña, the atmosphere is practically rolling out the red carpet for the procession to begin. And the favorability does not end there, as there should be plenty of fuel available for tropical development. Year-to-date precipitation over the African Sahel has been above average, which will reduce both the availability and distribution of dry, hurricane-disruptive air into the tropics during the season.

See more from Reuters.com HERE:

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Climate Change May Be Just as Hard on Lizards as it is on Polar Bears
Here’s an interesting story from the Atlantic that suggests climate change me just as hard on lizards as it is on polar bears.

“You’d think desert creatures would love climate change. They already thrive in the hottest, driest places on earth. But Barrows sees their numbers “dwindling,” an observation that reflects a larger trend: From Southern Africa to the Southwestern U.S., arid environments are becoming even less hospitable, and their denizens—animals as well as plants—seem to be struggling to keep up.”

See more from the Atlantic.com HERE:

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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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