By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Today could be a BIG day in the Plains. Weather conditions look ripe for a severe weather outbreak with extremely large hail, damaging winds and long-tracked tornadoes. Interestingly, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has had today in its sights and has been warning of this potentially dangerous situation since last week! I have a hunch that today could rival the biggest severe weather day of the year thus far, which hosted nearly 400 severe reports back in February.
Today’s severe threat in the Central U.S. is an extension of the the active Pacific flow that will keep on and off rain chances in place for us through the upcoming weekend. Keep in mind that we will be on the northern side of these potent storms, so cool, wind-whipped rain showers will be our main concern.
Looking ahead, temps should remain below average through the end of the month with near 70 degree weather returning by the first week of May. By the way, he average high May 1st is 65 degrees. It warms to 74 by the 31st!
We’re getting there.
Average Low: 42F (Record: 26F set in 1950)
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~5hours & 18mins
3.9 Days Before Last Quarter
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
MODERATE Severe Threat - Tuesday, April 26th
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
WRN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT...LEADING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED STRONG NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CA WILL FOLLOW A PATH SIMILAR /BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE SLY/ TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...MOVING THROUGH THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RELATED TO THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS LOW BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT 18Z IT WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NE CO WITH A DRYLINE ARCING FROM THE LOW EWD TO CLOSE
TO HYS AND THEN SWD TO SPS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE
LOW N OF THE KS/NEB THROUGH CNTRL IL.
PROGRESSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE
SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
NUMEROUS TSTM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVE MIN IN COVERAGE /BUT
NOT INTENSITY/ IN BETWEEN /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FROM
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
...MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND E TX...
A COMPLEX AND MESSY FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL/AR/TX AS A
CONTINUATION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE STRONG
TO SEVERE LINES AND CLUSTERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MO/IL AND
POTENTIALLY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF AR/TX...DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WHERE GREATER AXIS
OF INSTABILITY AND AIRMASS RECOVERY COULD DEVELOP IS UNCLEAR. THE
SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES AREAS WHERE OVERALL JET DYNAMICS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MANNER OF
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT
PARAMETER SPACE...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS
THAN THE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF SE NEB INTO SW IA AND NORTHWEST MO...
A CONDITIONAL/LOCALIZED THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANY THREAT
TO DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE SHUNTING EAST/SOUTHEAST.
THIS AREA AND MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE
...DAY 4/THU - DAY 5/FRI - PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
AN AREA OF SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS PROBABLE ON FRIDAY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OK AND/OR TX. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DIGS AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHERE
LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTH/NORTHWEST BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
THURSDAY...WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO
OK BY FRIDAY. STRONG MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP A SURFACE
DRYLINE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS COINCIDING WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WARM
“In the first study of its kind, scientists have been able to measure the climatic effect of a wind farm on the local environment. The team said its experiment showed that there was a very slight warming at ground level and that it was localised to within a wind farm’s perimeter. Data suggested the operation of onshore wind farms did not have an adverse ecological effect, the group added. The findings have been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. “For a long time there have been some concerns about what effects wind farms could have on the local climate and the land surface,” explained co-author Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, based at the University of Leeds. “To be honest, it was mostly speculation with nothing very concrete. We set out to actually measure what was going on.””
See more from BBC.com HERE:
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