Conservation Minnesota

Severe outbreak in the Plains – Cool rain for us

Duluth Waves
The same storm system responsible for our scattered showers and storms over the last couple of days was also responsible for strong winds and large waves on Lake Superior. This was the webcam from Duluth, MN, which shows large rollers crashing along the piers.
Large Lake Superior Waves
Take a look at the wave heights recorded by this buoy a few miles offshore near Duluth, MN. Note that it was recording 10ft to near 15ft waves during the day Monday!
Strong Storm System
This is a look at the storm on Monday afternoon. Note that the central of low pressure was located near southeastern Minnesota, however, a tight pressure gradient and a friction free northeastern wind allowed for a strong steady fetch to pile up waves in the western tip of the lake.
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Monday Morning Thunder
The storm system responsible for our somewhat soggy weather yesterday was responsible for more thunderstorms Monday. Lightning, thunder, heavy rainfall and even small hail reports moved in early/mid morning.

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First Minnesota Tornado of 2016
A line of thunderstorms developed late yesterday afternoon/evening, some of which became severe across southern MN. In fact, there were multiple reports of a brief tornado or two in Faribult county. Here are some images that were being shared via social media last night.


Tornado Reports Sunday Evening
As it stands now, these are the first Minnesota tornado reports of 2016. We may know more later today or this week if/when the National Weather Service out of the Twin Cities releases more information. Stay tuned.
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Severe outbreak in the Plains – Cool rain for us
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Today could be a BIG day in the Plains. Weather conditions look ripe for a severe weather outbreak with extremely large hail, damaging winds and long-tracked tornadoes. Interestingly, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has had today in its sights and has been warning of this potentially dangerous situation since last week! I have a hunch that today could rival the biggest severe weather day of the year thus far, which hosted nearly 400 severe reports back in February.

Today’s severe threat in the Central U.S. is an extension of the the active Pacific flow that will keep on and off rain chances in place for us through the upcoming weekend. Keep in mind that we will be on the northern side of these potent storms, so cool, wind-whipped rain showers will be our main concern.

Looking ahead, temps should remain below average through the end of the month with near 70 degree weather returning by the first week of May. By the way, he average high May 1st is 65 degrees. It warms to 74 by the 31st!

We’re getting there.
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Extended Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Lingering clouds. Few showers. Winds: N10. Low: 43
TUESDAY: Stubborn clouds with a few spits. Winds: ENE 10-15. High: 55.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, chance of light rain late. Winds: E 15. Low: 40.
WEDNESDAY: Wind-whipped rain showers, heavier south. Winds: E 10-15. High: 52.
THURSDAY: Lingering cool rain showers, less wind. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 38. High: 52
FRIDAY: Brighter and better, warmer temps. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 40. High: 60.
SATURDAY: Breezy. Scattered PM showers Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 45. High: 58.
SUNDAY: Nagging wind, scattered light rain. Winds: ENE 10-15. Wake-up: 44. High: 58.
MONDAY: Below average temps for early May. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 43. High: 59.
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This Day in Weather History
April 26th
1954: Extremely heavy downpours occur in Mora, where nearly 7 inches of rain would fall in a little over 10 hours.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 26th
Average High: 63F (Record: 85F set in 1970)
Average Low: 42F (Record: 26F set in 1950)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 26th
Sunrise: 6:09am
Sunset: 8:13pm
*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~2mins & 49secs
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~5hours & 18mins

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Moon Phase for April 26th at Midnight
3.9 Days Before Last Quarter

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Tuesday Weather Outlook
High temperatures on Tuesday will be quite cool across the state. Most will only make it into the 50s, which will be nearly 5F to 10F below average. Note that the 60s, 70s and even 80s won’t be far away!
Tuesday Weather Outlook
Winds will still be out of the east as the next storm system develops and approaches from the southwest. Winds will certainly be much stronger closer to Lake Superior just like they were Monday.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
While most of the heavy rainfall will be done on Tuesday, there may still be a few spits here and there and cross the central part of the state. Note that parts of northern Minnesota could see some sunshine by the afternoon!
Simulated Radar
Here’s the simulated radar from midday Monday to Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy skies and a few spits of rain will still be in association with the same storm system that brought us heavier pockets of rain Sunday and Monday. It appears that another wave heavier rain will slide through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across southern Minnesota. There may even be a few rumbles of thunder.
Precipitation Outlook
Here’s the precipitation outlook through 7pm Thursday, which suggests some steadier 1″+ tallies across parts southern Minnesota. Some of this rain will be associated with more thunderstorm activity, but much of it will be a steady, soaking rain late Tuesday into Wednesday as our next storm system sails through the middle part of the country.

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Extended Outlook
Here’s the extended forecast through the end of April/early May, which shows cooler than average temperatures continuing through much of next week. We may flirt with 60F a few times, but overall temps will stay below average until the first week of May.
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA’s CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a decent chance of cooler than average temperatures across the Midwest through the end of the April.
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National Weather Outlook
Here’s the weather outlook through PM Wednesday, which shows 2 different systems moving through the country. The first of which will move quickly east early week, while the next storm system will continue to take shape in the Central U.S. through midweek. Severe weather concerns will increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday in the middle part of the country.
5 Day Precipitation
According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests fairly heavy rainfall potential across the Central U.S.. Widespread 2″ to near 4″+ will be possible with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.
Snowfall Potential?
Here’s the snowfall potential through the end of April according to the GFS model. Note that most of the accumulations will be found across the higher elevations in the Western U.S., however, note that it is showing some minor slushy stuff from parts of the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. While it doesn’t appear to be much, it would indicate that temperatures would be chilly down to below average levels for this to occur. So next week looks a little chiller than we’ve seen in recent days.

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Upcoming Severe Weather Concerns Next Week
 
...SUMMARY...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
 
MODERATE Severe Threat - Tuesday, April 26th
 
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
WRN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT...LEADING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED STRONG NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CA WILL FOLLOW A PATH SIMILAR /BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE SLY/ TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...MOVING THROUGH THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RELATED TO THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS LOW BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT 18Z IT WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NE CO WITH A DRYLINE ARCING FROM THE LOW EWD TO CLOSE
TO HYS AND THEN SWD TO SPS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE
LOW N OF THE KS/NEB THROUGH CNTRL IL.

PROGRESSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE
SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
NUMEROUS TSTM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVE MIN IN COVERAGE /BUT
NOT INTENSITY/ IN BETWEEN /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/.
 




SLIGHT Severe Threat  – Wednesday, April 27th
 
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FROM
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN TEXAS.

...MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND E TX...

A COMPLEX AND MESSY FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL/AR/TX AS A
CONTINUATION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE STRONG
TO SEVERE LINES AND CLUSTERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MO/IL AND
POTENTIALLY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF AR/TX...DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WHERE GREATER AXIS
OF INSTABILITY AND AIRMASS RECOVERY COULD DEVELOP IS UNCLEAR. THE
SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES AREAS WHERE OVERALL JET DYNAMICS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MANNER OF
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT
PARAMETER SPACE...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS
THAN THE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF SE NEB INTO SW IA AND NORTHWEST MO...

A CONDITIONAL/LOCALIZED THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANY THREAT
TO DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE SHUNTING EAST/SOUTHEAST.
THIS AREA AND MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.
 

Severe Threat Friday – April 29th
 
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/THU - DAY 5/FRI - PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

AN AREA OF SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS PROBABLE ON FRIDAY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OK AND/OR TX. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DIGS AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHERE
LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTH/NORTHWEST BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
THURSDAY...WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO
OK BY FRIDAY. STRONG MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP A SURFACE
DRYLINE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS COINCIDING WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.
 
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Wind Farms’ Climate Impacts Recorded For First Time

“In the first study of its kind, scientists have been able to measure the climatic effect of a wind farm on the local environment. The team said its experiment showed that there was a very slight warming at ground level and that it was localised to within a wind farm’s perimeter. Data suggested the operation of onshore wind farms did not have an adverse ecological effect, the group added. The findings have been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. “For a long time there have been some concerns about what effects wind farms could have on the local climate and the land surface,” explained co-author Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, based at the University of Leeds. “To be honest, it was mostly speculation with nothing very concrete. We set out to actually measure what was going on.””

See more from BBC.com HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week and weekend ahead!
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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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