Conservation Minnesota

Slow Low Moves East – Prolonged Shower Chance Next Week

April Tornadoes
According to NOAA’s SPC, there have been only 22 tornadoes across the nation through the first 14 days of the month. Note that this is WELL below average as NOAA’s NCDC suggests that the average number of tornadoes during the month of April is around 155. However, the last couple of days have featured severe storms, including more tornadoes across parts of the Central U.S.. Here are pictures of a tornado that occurred in Oklahoma on Friday evening.

Storm Reports
Take a look at all the storm reports that have come in over the last couple of days. From heavy snow in the Rockies and along the Front Range to severe storms and flooding in the Plains. This storm system has caused quite a commotion since late last week and we’re not quite done with the storm yet.

Heavy Snow and Severe Storms
This is what the radar looked like from early Saturday as thunderstorms continued in the Plains and as heavy snow was falling in the Mountains and along the Front Range.

Snowy Saturday in Denver, CO
This was the view from a snowy, slushy Denver, CO early Saturday. Snowfall accumulations in the city of Denver were much lighter than that in the high elevations. Some spots in the Colorado Rockies saw feet of snow!



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Slow Low Moves East – Prolonged Shower Chance Next Week
By Todd Nelson

It’s amazing how the population seems to double or even triple when the weather gets nice, isn’t it? I finally got a chance to holler over at the neighbors this weekend. Not sure I’ve seen them since last fall, glad to know they still live there! It’s funny how Minnesotans seem to come out of their shell a little more when sunshine, 70 degree weather and the sounds of springtime bird calls return. I love it! Keep it coming Mother Nature!

Sunday will be mild once again with highs in the 70s across much of the state. The slow moving low pressure system that has been dumping feet of snow in the Rockies and churning up severe storms and flooding rains in the Plains, will be our nemesis through next week.

The cut-off storm won’t be in any hurry to leave the area, so prolonged chances of clouds, showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible as the system tiptoes east. Despite seeing cooler temps then, we’ll still be in the 60s, which is above average. 70s look to return Friday with storms possible next weekend.
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Extended Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 56.
SUNDAY: Still mild, stray PM shower or rumble of thunder possible. High: 75. Winds: S 5-15.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 56.
MONDAY: Spotty shower or t-shower. Winds: E 5-15. High: 72
TUESDAY: Cooler and cloudier, isolated t-shower. Winds: ESE 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 64.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered showers, a clap of thunder. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 65
THURSDAY: Lingering clouds and a few showers. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 51. High: 66.

FRIDAY: More sun. May-like temps return. Winds: SSE 8-13. Wake-up: 50. High: 70
SATURDAY: Windy and warm. Late day storm. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 72.
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This Day in Weather History
April 17th

1965: The Mississippi River at St. Paul has a record crest, 4 feet above the previous record. High water records would be set all the way down to Missouri in later days.
Interested in reading more on the 1965 flood? The MN Climatology Office put together a nice article on the 50th anniversary of the 1965 flooding last year (2015).

“April 1965 marks the record flooding of the Mississippi, Minnesota and St. Croix Rivers. The records set in April 1965 still stand in many places. The Mississippi River crested at St. Paul at 26.01 feet on April 16th and the St. Croix River crested at Stillwater at 94.10 feet on April 18th, 1965. The next closest record at Stillwater is 1.8 feet lower at 92.30 feet in April 2001. The flooding was caused by a combination of excessively deep frost, late winter snow and heavy April precipitation that caused rapid snow melt. With the ground still solidly frozen, the water ran off into rivers and caused widespread flooding.”

See more HERE:

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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 17th

Average High: 59F (Record: 85F set in 1985)
Average Low: 38F (Record: 10F set in 1875)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 17th

Sunrise: 6:24am
Sunset: 8:01pm
*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~2mins and 58secs
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~4hours and 51mins

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Moon Phase for April 17th at Midnight
4.1 Days Since First Quarter


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Sunday Weather Outlook
Mild weather continues into Sunday with highs in the 70s across much of the state. Keep in mind that the average high for Minneapolis is around 60F, so we’re still well above average for mid April.

Sunday Weather Outlook
Warm southerly winds will continue on Sunday. They winds will be breezy, but they won’t be quite as strong as they’ve been over the past few days.

Sunday Weather Outlook


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Simulated Radar
Weather conditions will slowly sour as we head into early next week. The storm system will continue to tiptoe east and bring us a slightly higher chance of precipitation each day through the middle part of next week. Here is the simulated radar from midday Saturday to Monday night.

Precipitation Outlook
Here’s the precipitation outlook through 7pm Tuesday, which shows the heaviest precipitation still located west of the Twin Cities. Some 1″ to 2″+ amounts can’t be ruled out across parts of South Dakota, while only a couple of tenths of an inch might be possible in the eastern part of Minnesota.


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Extended Weather Outlook
The extended forecast for Minneapolis is still suggesting temperatures in the 60s and 70s through most of next week, which will be well above average for the second half of the month.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
If you’ve been a fan of the recent mild weather, you’re in luck! It appears that warmer than average temperatures may be sticking around into next week. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a good chance of warmer than average temperatures from April 21st to April 25th.

6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook
Interestingly, the Twin Cities is nearly 1″ below average precipitation since January 1st. According to NOAA’s CPC, the 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook suggests a good chance of above normal precipitation from April 21st to April 25th.


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National Weather Outlook
The area of low pressure currently plaguing the Rockies and the Central U.S. will continue to slowly move east with more heavy rain and severe storms across the Southern U.S.. The good news is that the heavy snowfall will begin to taper as we head into early next week.

Severe Threat Sunday

 ...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE CONUS FOR D2/SUN. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MEANDERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND
VICINITY. SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ON THE ERN RIM OF SURROUNDING
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...SUPPORTING TSTM POTENTIAL INVOF AND E
OF A SYNOPTIC FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED NNE-SSW FROM PARTS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...EXHIBITING OVERALL
LIMITED MOTION ASIDE FROM LOCAL CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATIONS. PERSISTENT
SFC RIDGING WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY AIR MASS -- TO THE E OF THE WARM SECTOR.
 

Severe Threat Monday

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 

5 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast through the middle part of next week suggests significant rainfall totals of 4″ to 8″+ possible across the Southern U.S.. This could lead to areas of flooding across the Central and Southern Plains.

Flood Watches
Heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding across a wide area in the Plains as the storm system moves east. The rainfall forecast calls for 3″ to 6″ of rainfall or more through early next week.


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Meteorologists: The Least-Creepy People Out There
Oh, well… at least I have this to look forward to!

 “Congratulations meteorologists. You are apparently the least-creepy people out there. Researchers at Knox College, in Illinois, recently conducted what might be the first-ever empirical study of creepiness. Their work included ranking the public’s perception of how creepy various professions are, from least to most. Meteorologists finished as the least creepy, ahead even of teachers, farmers, college professors and doctors. (Writers finished in the middle of the pack, right alongside actors, so, um … yay us?) That’s the good news. The most-creepy professions, according to the study, were taxi drivers, funeral directors, sex-shop owners, taxidermists and — wait for it; wait for it – Clowns.”

Read more HERE:

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CU-Boulder, Weather Service Want Public’s Help on Hail Study
Want to help the National Weather Service do hail research? Here’s how:

“The University of Colorado and the National Weather Service are seeking help through crowdsourcing from those active on social media in investigating large accumulations from hailstorms between April and September. The study’s goal is to help researchers better understand and forecast hail-producing thunderstorms in Colorado as well as nationwide, according to Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Associate Professor Katja Friedrich. Researchers want users of Twitter, Facebook and email to document such severe storms with video, photos and measurements of hail depth for what is being called the Deep Hail Project, Friedrich said.”

(Photo courtesy: NWS)

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Godzilla El Nino, Now La Nina?
“El Niño is still hanging around, and it’s expected to continue through spring or early summer, but the impact on U.S. weather during this transition season is usually minor. Meanwhile, NOAA issued a La Niña Watch: conditions are favorable for La Niña to emerge within 6 months. In particular, heat content in the central Pacific dropped below average in March for the first time in a year. NOAA’s next ENSO update will be released on May 12.”

See more from NOAA HERE:


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend!
Follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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