Somewhat Soggy Sunday – Scatter PM Thunder
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
I’m beat. I wore myself out yesterday trying to pack in as much outdoor stuff as I could. Maybe Mother Nature is telling me to take it easy today. Cloudier skies and increased rain chances may be ideal napping weather. I see some Zzzs in my future.
Weather maps look active over the next several days. A series of Pacific storms will make the end of April a little more interesting for us. The first storm system will be with us through early next week. However, scattered showers and a few strong rumbles will flirt with southern Minnesota later today.
The next, more impressive storm system moves in by the middle part of next week. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Tuesday and Wednesday as potential severe weather outbreak days in the Central U.S. for several days now. It appears that Tuesday will feature the strongest of storms.
Extended rainfall forecasts are suggesting heavier moisture for us through the end of next week. This is good news! May flowers and recently fertilized lawns will be delighted.
Average Low: 41F (Record: 24F set in 1875)
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~5hours & 12mins
3.1 Days After Full (Pink) Moon
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
A WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON THE
MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUN MORNING. A
GENERAL WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OCCUR WITH EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO
VALLEY...AS AN ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL LOW LAGS ACROSS SD/NEB. THE
PRIMARY AREA OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SD...IN
VICINITY OF A PREEXISTING QUASI-STATIONARY W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...AND SHOULD SERVE AS ONE FOCUS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY ALONG/N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN CONUS AS A POWERFUL SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE
CA COAST. A SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NRN MX WILL REACH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN MORNING AND CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH TX.
CONCERN FOR A MORE ACTIVE SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON DAY 4/TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO NORTHEAST TX
REGION ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY.
Severe Threat Tuesday, April 26th
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON DAY 4/TUE.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...INDICATING INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE PIVOTING EAST TOWARD THE
PLAINS. A 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD NM
INTO WRN TX/OK AND KS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO AND SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND OR NORTHWEST KS. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THROUGH WESTERN OK TO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS
NRN KS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE HAS RESULTED IN WEST
AND NORTHWEST EXPANSIONS OF THE 15% AND 30% SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEW POINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS STRONGER
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON DAY 6/WED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO NORTHEAST TX AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE FORECAST
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS A 15%
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AREA REMAINS WARRANTED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
TO THE NORTHEAST TX REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
...DAY 6/THURSDAY - DAY 7/FRIDAY...
WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES DURING DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD OCCUR ON DAY 6/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...MODEL
SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY RESULTS IN DIFFERING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITY
AREA WILL BE DELINEATED FOR DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FARTHER WEST SHOWING AN
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON DAY 6/THU AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO ON DAY 7/FRI. THIS UPPER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TX ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN KS ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TIMING OF ANY MIDLEVEL IMPULSES PRECLUDES
THE INTRODUCTION OF 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THU/FRI.
“NEW YORK—U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon this morning declared the signing today of the Paris Agreement on climate change “a new covenant with the future.” Addressing a crowded assembly at U.N. headquarters, Ban said leaders from a record 171 nations have gathered to officially sign onto the landmark deal. It is, he said, the largest number of countries to ever sign onto an international agreement on a single day. Secretary of State John Kerry will address the gathering shortly, as well as French President François Hollande and leaders from China, India and dozens of other nations. “We are breaking records in this chamber. But records have also been broken outside,” Ban said. “Record global temperatures, record ice loss, record carbon levels in the atmosphere. We are in a race against time. I urge all countries to move quickly to join the agreement at the national level so the Paris Agreement can enter into force as early as possible.” Environmental groups quickly heaped praise on the festivities but said the ceremony is the start of what will be decades of hard work.”
The Key Players in Climate Change
Diplomats from at least 167 countries are gathering in New York to sign the climate accord reached in December in Paris. Whether they make good on their pledges to slow dangerous greenhouse gas emissions will depend in large part on the actions in the years ahead by the world’s largest polluters. A status report on the key players follows.
Read more from NYTimes.com HERE:
(Image Courtesy: Spencer Platt/Getty Images via NYTIMES.com)
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