Conservation Minnesota

Summer heat surges in for Father's Day weekend

Snow in June?
A storm system moving into the Western U.S. brought cold enough temperatures to in the high elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada range for some minor snow accumulations. Take a look at some of the webcams that the National Weather Service of of Sacramento, CA posted early Thursday.
Excessive Heat Building in the Southwest
While snow was falling in the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada Range on Thursday morning, dangerous heat is getting ready to build across the Desert Southwest by the weekend and into early next week. The image below show the heat bubble near its peak on Monday.
Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings
The National Weather Service has issued a number of excessive heat watches and warnings across the Southwest, which includes major cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma.
Potential High Temperatures & Stats

Phoenix, AZ
– Highs will approach 120 on both Sunday and Monday. Phoenix has only had a high of 120 or higher three times in their recorded history (since 1895).
– The last time Phoenix hit 120 or higher was back on July 28, 1995 when the thermometer hit 121.
– Whether the temperature touches 120 or not, record highs are likely. The current record high each day between Saturday and Tuesday is 115.
Tucson, AZ
– We are calling for a forecast high of 114 on Sunday. Only seven times in Tucson recorded history (since 1894) has the city seen a high of 114 or higher – the last time occurring on July 28, 1995 when it also reached 114.
– The all-time record in Tucson history is 117 set back on June 26, 1990.
– Record highs over the weekend and into next week are 113 Saturday, 112 Sunday, 110 Monday and 112 Tuesday.
Las Vegas, NV
– Las Vegas is no stranger this type of higher heat in the forecast, reaching a temperature of 115 or higher 55 times since 1937. The last time Las Vegas saw a high of 115 or higher was back on July 2, 2013.
– The warmest high ever in Las Vegas history is 117 reached three times in their history. The most recent occurrence was back on June 30, 2013.
– Our forecast has Las Vegas reaching 114 both Monday and Tuesday next week.
– Record highs this weekend into next week are 115 Saturday, 114 Sunday, 113 Monday and 111 Tuesday.
Los Angeles, CA
– Even Los Angeles will get in on the heat this week into early next week, reaching at least the mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday.
– We could even see highs in downtown Los Angeles break the triple-digit mark next Monday. Down toward LAX, highs Monday will be near 90, which could break the record for the day of 86.

(Image and stats courtesy: DJ Kayser @DKayserWX)
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Summer heat surges in for Father’s Day weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I slapped my first mosquito yesterday. Yep. Recent heavy rains and warm temperatures have created ideal conditions for swarms of skeeters to attack. Keep in mind that those pesky buggers will likely be more prevalent around dusk and dawn, so if you’re plans take you outdoors during those times, have the bug spray ready. Happy swatting!
Friday is the first day that our average high in Minneapolis has reached 80 degrees in 2016 and it will be at 80 degrees or warmer through August 23rd. Summer heat and humidity looks to surge back into the Upper Midwest through the weekend with highs approaching 90 degrees by Father’s Day. Scattered storms and heavy pockets of rain across northern Minnesota on Saturday will slide south and become a late day threat for the rest of us on Sunday.
Keep in mind that a near full strawberry moon will be visible over the weekend. It will be officially full on Monday, which coincides with the Summer Solstice!

Sure it’ll be hot here, but Los Angeles, CA could hit 100 degrees Monday. No thanks
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Extended Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet with patchy fog Winds: ENE 5mph. Low: 62
FRIDAY: Warmer, more humid. Spotty thunder west. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 85
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: SE 5. Low: 66.
SATURDAY: Feels like summer. More PM storms N. Winds: S 5-10. High: 86
SUNDAY: Sticky Father’s Day. Heavy storms late. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 68. High: 90
MONDAY: Lingering AM T-storms. Not as muggy. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 82
TUESDAY: Bright sun, refreshing breeze. Winds: WNW 5-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 77
WEDNESDAY: Comfy. Stray afternoon T-shower? Winds: WSW 5. Wake-up: 59. High: 78
THURSDAY: A touch warmer. Afternoon rumble? Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 81
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This Day in Weather History
June 17th
2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurs with 48 tornadoes across the state. This outbreak would set the stage for a record breaking tornado year in Minnesota that finished with 113 tornadoes, the most of any state in the US that year. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest daily number since July 5, 1978.
(Tornado near Buffalo, Wright County. Photo credit: Dave Wierstad)
(Storm reports from June 17th, 2010)
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 17th
Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 42F set in 1960)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 17th
Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:02pm
*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~16seconds
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice (December 22nd): ~6hours and 50mins
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Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
2.2 Days Until Full (Strawberry) Moon
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Extended Outlook
More Heat on the way? Here’s the extended forecast depicted from the ECMWF model, which suggests another hot front arriving on Father’s Day Sunday with high temperatures getting to near 90F! However, it doesn’t appear to last too long as highs much of next week look to settle into the low/mid 80s.
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA’s CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a slight chance of below normal temperatures from June 21st – 25th across the Great Lakes. As we head into next week, temperatures will like be closer to where we should be at this time of the year. Side note; the Summer Solstice is Monday, June 20th!

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Friday Weather Outlook
High temperatures across the state on Friday will be a little warmer than they were on Thursday with a few more 80s showing up across the southern half of the state. The other thing to note is that dewpoint values will start to increase as we head into the the weekend, so it’ll start feeling quite a bit more muggy over the coming days.
Friday Weather Outlook
An area of low pressure approaching from the west will allow winds to pick up out of the east/southeast on Friday, however, wind speeds will stay fairly light. 
Friday Weather Outlook
Here’s the weather outlook around midday Friday, which suggests a little light shower/thunderstorm activity across the eastern Dakotas and parts of western MN. it appears that this unsettled weather will try to advance east, but it will run into drier, more stable air and tend to fall apart, so not much eastward advancement is expected. Most of eastern MN and WI should see more sun during the day Friday, while a few lingering showers and storms will be found across parts of western MN.
Simulated Radar
The simulated radar through Saturday suggests strong storms across the Dakotas fading as they move into western MN by early Friday. While a few lingering clouds and rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out on Friday, most of the heavy rain looks to dissipated before any deeper into Minnesota. Another round of showers and storms is expected late Saturday across NW MN and again on Sunday.
Rainfall Potential
Rainfall potential through suggests heavier rainfall across NW MN through PM Saturday. This heavier rainfall potential will be associated with scattered showers and storms that will be on and off through the weekend. 

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National Weather Outlook
A storm system moving into the Western U.S. that brought snow to parts of the northern Sierra Nevada range will wash out a bit through early weekend. As this happens, dangerous heat begins develop in the Southwest through early next week. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms will be possible across parts of the Midwest and Eastern U.S. through the end of the week. 

Severe Threat Friday

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RISK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF MT/WY AND ND. STORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ND INTO NORTHWEST MN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST
SD.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY SHOULD STALL
FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH EASTERN SD TO WESTERN NEB BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORCING ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT /ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF ANY
LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM DAY 1/ MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
NEW STORM INITIATIONS. THIS LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 3000-4500 J PER KG/...WITH SOME DRY AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING AT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FOR THESE REASONS...THE MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN/EASTERN SD TO
FAR SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN.
Severe Threat Saturday
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS...PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MAY ELONGATE
EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW
MIGRATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DEFORMED/SHEARED WHILE CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A MODEST SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT PROBABLY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
5 Day Rainfall Potential
According to NOAA’S WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests heavier pockets of rain across parts of the northern tier of the nation through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeastern U.S.. Keep in mind that with thunderstorm activity, some locations could see 1″ to 2″+ through the end of the weekend.

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“Climate Impacts From Farming Are Getting Worse”
As signs emerge that the global energy sector is beginning to rein in what once had been unbridled levels of climate-changing pollution, new United Nations figures show pollution from farming is continuing to get worse. Greenhouse gases released from the growing of crops and livestock directly increased by a little more than 1 percent in 2014, compared with a year prior, the newly updated data shows. Burning fossil fuels for energy grew by about half that amount during the same period, research published in December showed, with further reductions anticipated for 2015. That’s seen as a key first step toward achieving the vast pollution reductions needed to start to stabilize the climate. “Historically, it’s been the opposite — fossil fuel emissions have grown exponentially and agricultural emissions have grown linearly,” said Francesco Tubiello, a team leader in the statistics division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, which compiles the data.
(“Dairy cows are a major source of methane pollution, which heats the atmosphere faster than carbon dioxide.” Credit: John Upton)

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“The Mosaic-Tailed Rat From The Great Barrier Reef Is Now Extinct Due To Climate Change”
“The first mammal wiped out from climate change is an Australian rat that lived on a tiny island on the Great Barrier Reef. Bramble Cay is so small, it’s not technically an island, but a cay, at 340m by 150m which is a 20-minute walk from end to end or about the size of three Melbourne Cricket Grounds. In a report released in June 2016 by the Queensland Government and the University of Queensland, researchers found the last anecdotal sighting of the rat was from fishermen in the area in 2009. The report found climate change-exacerbated sea level rise seriously impacted the island, which was only 3m above sea level at its highest point, and the presumption is that the cay was temporarily submerged, killing the rats.”
(DAVID CARTER / DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE PROTECTION)

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“Global climate experiencing ‘fundamental change’ says UN”
The global climate is undergoing “fundamental change” with abnormal weather conditions becoming the “new normal”, the United Nations warned on Tuesday, as the month of May was declared the hottest on record.  The northern hemisphere also experienced the hottest spring on record, including heavy rain across much of Europe, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a Geneva-based branch of the UN. Meanwhile, the Arctic ice cap began melting unusually early. By March, the ice was disappearing at rates not normally seen until July. The average temperature in May was 0.95 degrees centigrade higher than the average recorded between 1951 and 1980, while the world had now seen 370 consecutive months of warm or warmer than average temperatures, the agency said. “The state of the climate so far this year gives us much cause for alarm,” said Dr David Carlson, the director of the Climate Research Programme at the WMO. “The super El Niño is only partly to blame. Abnormal is the new normal.”

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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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