Conservation Minnesota

Sunny Tuesday, Storms Return Wednesday – 1-3"+ Of Rain Possible By Memorial Day

Minnesota Crop Update
The latest crop progress update for Minnesota was released Monday from the USDA, showing that the recent frost didn’t have much of an impact on the corn crop. 78% of the corn statewide has emerged, and 65% of that is in good to excellent condition. Meanwhile, 86% of the soybean crop is planted. Read more from the USDA.
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Minnesota May Rain

Besides the wet period we had in the Twin Cities between the 9th and 13th, May has been pretty dry across many areas of the state. The heaviest rain so far this month has been in parts of southwest Minnesota, where some rain gauges have recorded between 2-4″ of rain. Through Sunday, the largest rain so far this month was 4.09″ reported three miles WSW of Sherburn.
This May is starting off as one of the driest on record for some areas of the upper Midwest. In Fargo, the 0.08″ of rain they received through the first 22 days of May was the third driest start to the month on record (the driest was 0.04″ in 1980). The 0.38″ received through Sunday in International Falls ranks it as the sixth driest start to May on record (driest: 0.07″ in 1917).

The less than two inches of rain that we’ve seen so far this month across a good chunk of the upper Midwest is a good 1-2″ below average from where we should be. Remember that this doesn’t take into account any rain that fell Monday. The rain that comes this week should help put a dent into the rainfall deficit that we’ve been running.
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Do You Have a Severe Storm Action Plan?
By: Paul Douglas
‘Tis the season for outdoor weddings and grad parties. Do yourself a big favor: RENT THE TENT. It’s always good to have a Plan B, especially in June, the wettest, most severe month of the year in Minnesota.
A NOAA Weather Radio works great at home or the office, but when you’re mobile how do know when violent weather is approaching? Put that shiny supercomputer in your pocket (smartphone) to good use. There are now apps that send warnings directly to your phone, based on your GPS-location.
Review an action plan with your family. “Where would you go if this was the real deal?” A little paranoia goes a long way.
We will be in a volatile, tropical pattern into next week with numerous showers & T-storms. No major severe outbreak is imminent, but models print out 2-3 inches of rain by Memorial Day.
Wednesday and Saturday look like the wettest days; with light steering winds aloft storms may linger, increasing the risk of isolated flash flooding. Throw in orange construction cones and you have a party on the freeway!
Take it easy out there; the thundery days of summer are here.
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Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Warm sun, drier. High: 83. Low: 65. Chance of precipitation: 10%. Wind: W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More showers and T-storms. High: 75. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 80%. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Another break, intervals of sun. High: 80. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 20%. Wind: W 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Unsettled & sticky, few T-storms. High: 77. Low: 62. Chance of precipitation: 50%. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Wettest day of the holiday weekend. High: 76. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 90%. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Some sun, instability T-storm. High: 80. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 40%. Wind: SW 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Probably the sunniest, driest day. High: 83. Low: 64. Chance of precipitation: 20%. Wind: W 7-12 mph.
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This Day in Weather History
May 24th

1925: After seeing a high of 99 degrees two days earlier, the Twin Cities picks up a tenth (.10) of an inch of snow.
1908: Tornadoes hit the counties of Martin and Blue Earth.
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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 24th

Average High: 72F (Record: 95F set in 2010)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 32F set in 1925)
Average Precipitation: 0.11″ (Record: 2.58″ set in 2012)
Average Snowfall: 0.0″ (Record: 0.1″ in 1925)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 24th
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:46 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 10 minutes and 51 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1 mins & 53 secs

*Next Sunrise That Is Before 5:30 AM: June 1st (5:29 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is After 9 PM: June 13th (9:01 pm)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Highs will climb into the 80s once again Tuesday across most of Minnesota under mainly sunny skies. The coolest spots across the state will be across northern Minnesota, particularly along and near Lake Superior.
NAM forecast clouds and precipitation every three hours from 7 am Tuesday through 7 am Wednesday.
Clouds will clear out as we head through the morning hours Tuesday, leading to another warm and spectacular day across the region. A few storms are possible across northern Minnesota heading into the evening hours. Across southern Minnesota, we’ll be watching storms moving into the region as we head toward the Wednesday morning hours.
Of course, the main story this week across Minnesota will be heavy rainfall. One of our models – the GFS – is forecasting a good 2-3″ of rain through Friday as moisture streams in from the south. Even though we will see a break in the rain Tuesday, another batch of heavy rain will move in for Wednesday. That’s certainly not the end of it, though – while some scattered showers/storms will be around Thursday, another storm system will move in for Friday into Saturday with the potential of more heavy rain.
Looking at a few of our extended models, there will be the potential of 2-4″ of rain across the Twin Cities by the time we get through Memorial Day.
The chance of storms will also bring a marginal threat of severe weather both Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the state. The marginal threat is highlighted in the dark green area in the graphic above – Tuesday over southern Minnesota (during the overnight hours) and Wednesday across much of the state.
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National Forecast Outlook

With moisture streaming north in the central United States, we’ll be watching numerous showers and storms as we head through the next few days – some of which could be strong to severe – across this part of the county. Elsewhere, a storm will be pushing off the eastern seaboard Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rainfall potential through Friday. Green = 1″+, yellow = 2″+, orange = 3″+, red = 4″+.
The upper Midwest, along with parts of the south, will be the target for the heaviest of rain through Friday across the nation. 2-4″+ of rain could fall in areas near Omaha, Kansas City and Dallas as we head toward the Memorial Day weekend.
Another afternoon and evening of severe weather is expected Tuesday with a couple areas of the central U.S. that the Storm Prediction Center says has an Enhanced threat of severe storms (in orange). The main threat from these storms will be very large hail, but damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible as well.
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SCS = Severe Convective Storms.
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D.C.’s worst May ever” – That’s how Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang describes the weather in the D.C. area so far this May. Read more: “So far this May, D.C. has had a record number of rainy days (19 of 23) and the coolest high temperatures since 1882. This May’s afternoon highs are running an incredible 15 degrees cooler than last May’s. And we still haven’t hit 80 degrees.” (Graphic: Iowa Environmental Mesonet)
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From Time.com: Head distiller Caley Shoemaker is pictured a the Hangar 1 distillery on Alameda, named for a building on the old naval air base where it was founded. Credit: Sam Kweskin

Vodka… from Fog? Now here’s a new one: a distillery in the San Francisco Bay Area is now making vodka from fog. More from Time: “Vodka can be made from almost anything and often is. There’s potato-based vodka. Wheat-based vodka. Grape-based vodka. There’s even vodka made from milk and honey. But Bay Area-based Hangar 1 distillery has taken this potable art to a level of elaborate novelty that makes $4 pieces of toast boring by comparison: their team has produced a limited-edition batch of vodka made from actual San Francisco fog.
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Thanks for checking in and have a great Tuesday! Don’t forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
– D.J. Kayser

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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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