By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
I am reminded by the lyrics of one of Minnesota’s own, Prince, today; “Springtime was always my favorite time of year.” He sang this in his song “Sometimes it snows in April.”
The recent news hits home. A global icon. A true artist. Now, spring may remind some of us of tears. “All good things, they say, never last.” You are gone, but not forgotten.
Weather conditions look quite active into early May as a series of potent Pacific storms move across
the country. Severe weather season is just getting started and next week could feature a decent severe weather outbreak across the Plains.
Keep in mind that May is the busiest month for tornadoes nationwide, averaging 276 from 1991- 2010. Minnesota’s busiest month for tornadoes typically peaks in June, averaging 18.
Our first chance of thunder, rumbles in late weekend with more next week. Interestingly, temperatures may be cool enough as these storms depart for wintry precipitation to mix in across parts of the state, especially next week.
Average Low: 41F (Record: 19F set in 1910)
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~5hours & 9mins
2.1 Days After Full (Pink) Moon
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID-MO VALLEY BY 12Z MON. AS THE 50+ KT MIDLEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
OK/KS INTO MO/IA/NEB...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OK
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IA. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
OK APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. SHOULD A STORM
DEVELOP HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN SD INTO NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN.
HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND WEAKER
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE ADDITION OF PROBS AT THIS TIME.
A MORE ACTIVE SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD.
Severe Threat Tuesday, April 26th
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON DAY 5/TUE.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...INDICATING INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE PIVOTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
PLAINS. A 60+ KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD NM INTO WRN TX/OK AND
KS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
OVER ERN CO AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS INTO WRN OK AND
W-CNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NRN KS INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON DAY 6/WED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO NORTHEAST TX AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...BUT GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY BY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MORE PRISTINE WITH SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT INTO SRN MO/AR/SE OK/NE TX AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT MAY
ULTIMATELY UNFOLD ACROSS THAT AREA. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
MORE VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PARAMETERS SHOULD STILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
...DAY 7/THURSDAY - DAY 8/FRIDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON DAY
7/THU...THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW GIVEN TWO DAYS OF PRIOR
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND/OR OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR
IS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER. THIS UNCERTAINTY AND MULTI-MODEL VARIABILITY
CONTINUES INTO DAY 8/FRI...WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING IN THE EVOLUTION
OF ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS.
“Boulder, Colo. — IMAGINE a future in which humanity’s accumulated wisdom about Earth — our vast experience with weather trends, fish spawning and migration patterns, plant pollination and much more — turns increasingly obsolete. As each decade passes, knowledge of Earth’s past becomes progressively less effective as a guide to the future. Civilization enters a dark age in its practical understanding of our planet. To comprehend how this could occur, picture yourself in our grandchildren’s time, a century hence. Significant global warming has occurred, as scientists predicted. Nature’s longstanding, repeatable patterns — relied on for millenniums by humanity to plan everything from infrastructure to agriculture — are no longer so reliable. Cycles that have been largely unwavering during modern human history are disrupted by substantial changes in temperature and precipitation.”