Conservation Minnesota

Wintry Mix Monday with Light Snow Accumulations; Warmer Temps Ahead

Snow From the U.S. Capitol
It was an incredible storm… one for the record books in many spots. This was the view from the U.S. Capitol building in D.C. where they picked up nearly 2ft. of snow. The official tally at the Dulles Airport was 29.3″, which is good enough for the 2nd largest snowfall in recorded history!


Snowfall on Visible Satellite
The visible satellite image from Sunday showed the significant snow swath from nearly 23,000 miles above the Earth’s surface… Note the sharp cut-off between snow and no snow. Within the heavy snow band there were several double digit amounts with sever 1ft. to 2ft.+ amounts!

Snowfall Amounts and Analysis

 
CENTRAL PARK          26.8   100 AM  1/24  ASOS
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 30.5 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
NYC/LA GUARDIA 27.9 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
BWI AIRPORT 29.2 1230 AM 1/24 AIRPORT
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 22.4 100 AM 1/24 ASOS
NEWARK AIRPORT 28.1 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 29.3 1230 AM 1/24 AIRPORT
 
...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
DALECARLIA RESERVOIR 26.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 WSW NATIONAL ZOO 22.4 914 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E WASHINGTON 22.3 1200 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
ADAMS MORGAN 21.0 1121 PM 1/23 NWS EMPLOYEE 
 

Blizzard 2016 vs. 1996
This is interesting… The National Weather Service out of Binghamton NY tweeted this picture out, which showed the similarities between Blizzard of 2016 vs. the Blizzard of 1996


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Wintry mix Monday with light snow accumulations
By Todd Nelson

 
The historic storm that dumped 3ft to nearly 4ft of snow across parts of the Eastern U.S. also became the 2nd largest snowfall event for New York City, dumping a whopping 26.8 inches of snow in Central Park. Interestingly, it missed the top mark by only 0.1 of an inch as the February 2006 storm still holds the top spot with 26.9 inches of snow. Regardless, this was a crippling event for several major cities that saw snows near the top of their records.

While some in the Northeast saw nearly a whole seasons worth of snow in one storm, the seasonal snowfall deficit has grown to more than 1 foot in the Twin Cities! A weak system will scoot through the region today with a light wintry mix, which will turn to light snow later today. There will be a 1 to 4 inch band of snow setting up from eastern South Dakota to northeastern Minnesota. The Twin Cities might be lucky to pick up 1 inch of snow by later tonight.

Our forecast then turns to a January thaw as temps climb into the 30s several times through the end of the month.
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Winter Weather Advisory


...SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN AND A WINTRY MIX IN SOUTHERN MN AND
WESTERN WI ON MONDAY...

.A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MIXED WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT.

* EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM MONDAY AND THEN
DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN WESTERN MN BETWEEN 6
AM AND NOON MONDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES

* A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI.

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.
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EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, light wintry mix and snow develops late. Winds: E 5. Low: 26
MONDAY:  Light wintry mix, changing to light snow later.. Winds: NNE 7. High: 31
MONDAY NIGHT: Light snow. Up to 1″ possible. Winds: NNW 5-15. Low: 22
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, better travel weather. Winds: NW 10. High: 26
WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken, a few flurries overnight. Wake-up: 13. High: 26
THURSDAY: Breezy. A few lingering flurries. Wake-up: 25. High: 34
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, January thaw. Wake-up: 25. High 34.

SATURDAY: Warm for January with a light mix. Wake-up: 28. High: 37.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and still mild. Wake-up: 22. High: 33.
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This Day in Weather History
January 25th

1964: A record high temperature of 64 is set at Redwood Falls.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 25th

Average High: 24F (Record: 58F set in 1944)
Average Low: 7F (Record: -31F set in 1904)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 25th

Sunrise: 7:40am
Sunset: 5:11pm
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Moon Phase for January 25th at Midnight
2.2 Days After Full Moon


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend
The extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis continues to suggest warmer than average temperatures continuing through the end of the week and into the first couple of days of February. However, there may be a bigger cool down as we head through the first week of February.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA’s CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures across much of the Upper Midwest  by the end of the month/eary part of February. These types of temperatures will feel incredibly warm compared to what we endured during the early/middle part of January.


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Monday Weather Outlook
High temperatures across the region will be warmer than average once again on Monday. Highs near Minneapolis will once again flirt with the freezing mark, but a stronger wind will make it feel more like the 20s. Note the cooler air lurking across the Dakotas; feels like temperatures will be in the single digits there.

Monday Weather Outlook
Winds will still be fairly light across the Western Great Lakes, but note the winds picking up across the Dakotas with winds gusting to near 20mph+ as our next system rolls into town.

Monday Weather Outlook
As our next weather system moves throughout the region, there will be a mix of rain, wintry precip and snow. It appears that the best chance for accumulating snow will be found from eastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota, while a wintry mix will be found across the southern MN and into parts of WI.

Simulated Radar
The simulated radar from Sunday to Tuesday shows our next system pushing through the region with snow and wintry mixed conditions. Note the heavy and steadiest snowfall looks to move in from the Eastern South Dakota through Central and Northeastern MN.

Minnesota Snowfall Potential
The snowfall potential through 6pm Tuesday suggests a fairly narrow swath of 1″ to 4″ of snow from Eastern SD to Northeastern MN and Northern WI. It appears that the heaviest will be just northwest of the Twin Cities, with up to 1″ possible in the metro.

Minneapolis Snowfall Potential
The snowfall potential for Minneapolis suggests nearly 1″ of snow through Monday evening.


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National Weather Outlook
Things have quieted down dramatically in the Eastern U.S., but another system will push through the middle part of the country through the early week time frame. Rain and areas of thunder will be found across the south, while snow and wintry precip will be found across the far north.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests some of the heaviest moisture continuing in the Pacific Northwest. Another blob of 1″ to 2″+ amounts near the Gulf Coast States and Florida

5 Day Snowfall Forecast
According to the 5 day GFS forecast, there will be a few areas of snow across the western U.S., mainly in the higher elevations, but there will also be a few areas of shovelable snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes through the end of the week.

Snowfall Analysis: January 24th
According to NOAA’s NOHRSC, the national snow coverage as of Sunday, January 24th was 56.5%. Note that this last storm to impact the Eastern U.S. brought snow to places across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast States.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperature across much of the eastern half of the country. With this warming, expect to see quite a bit of snow melt next week and early February.


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Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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About Paul Douglas

Paul Douglas
Paul Douglas is a meteorologist, author, entrepreneur, and software expert in Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota. He is a nationally recognized meteorologist with over 30 years of broadcast television and radio experience.
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